One week into the season, Dodgers will face the Diamondbacks for the fifth time this season. In the first series of the season the teams split a four-game series. On Thursday I expect the Dodgers to score runs off Arizona starter Merrill Kelly. I'm on L.A.

There's a solid chance the Dodgers are without former AL MVP Mookie Betts tonight after he banged up his ankle on Tuesday in a collision. That LA lineup isn't close to what it was last year after losing Trea Turner and a few others, and sans Betts it really would be lacking. I like Arizona in its home opener at this terrific RL price even if Betts plays. LA shortstop Miguel Rojas is out tonight. Snakes pitcher Merrill Kelly, who threw 3.2 scoreless innings vs. the Dodgers last weekend, had a 3.02 ERA at home last year.

The current incarnation of the Dodgers doesn't feel as deadly as most of the recent Los Angeles teams have. But this is still a team that's rolling out Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith on most days, and still features a bullpen that most other franchises would kill for, even if it's more mix-and-match than usual. L.A. is also starting Dustin May today, and it would behoove us to take advantage of May's appearances while he's still healthy. The Diamondbacks are ascendant, but my model still has the Dodgers winning in 68% of its simulations. L.A. to win.