Coming back from a neck strain, Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi threw 67 and 74 pitches versus the Tigers and Rays. He likely won't go deep tonight. And the Blue Jays' bullpen is in bad shape. Kikuchi has a 5.74 ERA on the road and got rocked in his only start against the Orioles this season (4 IP, 5 hits, 4 ER, 2 HR). Orioles starter Jordan Lyles has been dynamite at home, posting a 2.68 ERA while allowing just one homer. (He's given up 15 homers on the road). Play Baltimore plus 1.5 runs at -130.

Baltimore outfielder Austin Hays (.258, 12 HR, 47 RBIs) is back in the lineup tonight. He hasn't played since Tuesday due to left oblique tightness. Even with Sunday's home upset loss to Pittsburgh, the Birds have won 14 of their last 18 home games and 21 of their last 29 games overall. Jordan Lyles is on the mound, and he has a 2.68 ERA at home. Lyles is one of two pitchers to allow no more than one home run at home this season (minimum 50.0 IP). Yusei Kikuchi is on the bump for the Jays, and the lefty has been wildly inconsistent this year. He's 0-3 with a 5.74 ERA on the road. Baltimore is 10-2 in its past 12 vs. a lefty. Runline at -130.

The Orioles come into this game owning the best run line cover record in the league (70-38). Jordan Lyles is substantially better at home with a 2.68 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. For the Blue Jays, Yusei Kikuchi is winless on the road with a 5.74 ERA. In 18 games this season, Kikuchi has only lasted 5 innings or more seven times. The Orioles have a top-three bullpen with a 3.07 ERA. The O's are only two games behind the Blue Jays for the Wild Card, so there could be a playoff-like atmosphere tonight in Baltimore. Play the Orioles +1.5 (-130).

The Blue Jays had no business being in their game Sunday and were lucky to win, in my opinion. They are much worse on the road at 26-27 this season while the Orioles have been much better at home at 31-21. Jordan Lyles has been on fire lately and he is much better at home going 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA. You never know what you will get out of Yusei Kikuchi and he allowed 4 ER in 4 innings pitched earlier this season to the Orioles. The Orioles will also have their whole bullpen available while the Blue Jays had Jordan Romano pitch two innings on Sunday. The Blue Jays could also have their other top two relievers in Yimi Garcia and Anthony Bass unavailable after pitching three of the last four games. Austin Hays has been out for the Orioles but he could be back in. I like the value in the Orioles.