Justin Verlander has pitched very well this season outside of two blowup starts and he is 9-3 with a 2.22 ERA on the season. Taijuan Walker has been pitching very well this season too, he has really only had one bad start. However the Astros have dominated this matchup winning three of the three games so far this season. The Astros bullpen is also completely rested and they are ranked second in the league in ERA while the Mets are ranked 13th. The Mets are also missing a couple key players today, James McCann, JD Davis and Mark Canha are all out of the lineup against the righty. The Astros head home to face the Yankees again after this series so I am a bit worried they’re looking ahead, but I still like this value on Verlander and the Astros.

It's ace Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.22 ERA) on the mound and Houston is starting essentially every healthy regular other than catcher Martin Maldonado, who can't hit a lick anyways. The Astros' bullpen is fully ready to go because Framber Valdez was so dominant Tuesday. The Mets are starting essentially three easy outs at the bottom of the lineup in Dom Smith, Ender Inciarte and Tomas Nido with the likes of Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar and James McCann on the bench. Taijuan Walker has been good on the mound of late but he is in the bottom 20 percent of qualified pitchers in average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate. Have to take Verlander under -140.

One of two early Grade A plays on Wednesday via my model. Top AL Cy Young contender Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.22 ERA) is on the mound for Houston, but the model likes the Mets to win as short home dogs behind Taijuan Walker, who is 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA at Citi Field.