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Tue 07/06 | 12:05 AM UTC | Chicago
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Philadelphia Phillies 39-42, -282 ML
PHI +1.5
PHI +143
Over 11
Chi. Cubs 42-42, -40 ML
CHC -1.5
CHC -153
Under 11

Expert Picks

Philadelphia 13 @ Chi. Cubs 3 | 07/06 | 12:05 AM UTC

OVER 11

WIN

ANALYSIS: This is a play mainly on the weather conditions at Wrigley Field. Chicago's home park is one of the most influenced by wind direction in the majors due to the tunneling effects that can happen there. The wind is blowing out to right field at about 12 mph and the air density index looks to be below the average, which is another great sign for hitting. The number is accurately inflated, but with such a drastic increase in the chance that a fly ball leaves the yard, I think this is a worthwhile play. Also, we get to fade the Phillies' bullpen, which has been horrendous. I'll take the high total and go Over.

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Justin Perri

Model Guy
+370 6-2 IN LAST 8 MLB PICKS
+500 5-0 IN LAST 5 PHI O/U PICKS

Season Splits

39-42, -282 ML
42-42, -40 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
48%
39-42, -282
42-42, -40
50%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
36%
15-26, -911
26-13, +1027
66%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
44%
22-28, -131
25-13, +488
65%
When Line was +128 to +158
MONEY LINE
When Line was -168 to -138
56%
9-7, +542
10-5, +181
66%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
39%
13-20, -447
18-9, +362
66%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
53%
15-13, +211
7-5, +110
58%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
50%
8-8, -8
21-19, -211
52%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
46%
24-28, -222
28-32, -340
46%
vs CHC
HEAD TO HEAD
vs PHI
0-0, 0
0-0, 0
when Matt Moore starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Zach Davies starts
75%
3-1, +357
10-7, +451
58%