This is a play mainly on the weather conditions at Wrigley Field. Chicago's home park is one of the most influenced by wind direction in the majors due to the tunneling effects that can happen there. The wind is blowing out to right field at about 12 mph and the air density index looks to be below the average, which is another great sign for hitting. The number is accurately inflated, but with such a drastic increase in the chance that a fly ball leaves the yard, I think this is a worthwhile play. Also, we get to fade the Phillies' bullpen, which has been horrendous. I'll take the high total and go Over.

Will tonight be the night the Cubs snap their nine game losing streak? Zach Davies didn’t allow a run in three of his six starts in June and although the Cubs bullpen has been bad, the Phillies bullpen has been much worse. Matt Moore is making just his fifth start of the season meaning the Phillies bullpen will most likely be in for half the game. The Cubs return home where they are 26-13 on the season while the Phillies are 15-26 on the road.

I've done well over the past week fading the Cubs as they are on a nine-game skid, but those were all on the road. Chicago is an excellent 26-13 at home and also has a winning record against lefties overall. The Phils start a southpaw in Matt Moore (0-1, 5.79). It's Zach Davies (5-5, 4.32) for the Cubbies, and he has allowed two earned or fewer in four of his past five outings. Philadelphia is 3-7 in its past 10 vs. a right-hander.

The Cubs have lost nine straight, but this is the spot where they end their skid. Five of those nine losses came by one run, including the past three. Tonight they're facing lefty Matt Moore and they're much better versus southpaws. The Phils are facing right-hander Zach Davies, and they're much worse versus righties. The Cubs are 26-13 at home while the Phils are 15-26 on the road. Lay the price at Wrigley.

My model says the Cubs win in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Chicago returns home after having lost the final nine contests of its 10-game road trip. That should go a long way toward ending the losing streak, as the Cubs are among the best home teams in the majors at 26-13. In addition, they're facing a Philadelphia club that is 11 games under .500 on the road. Expect Chicago to end its slide.