My model likes the value on the Braves again tonight on the road against Zach Eflin. Eflin's struggles with left-handed hitters, and in the month of July overall are a major concern. Max Fried provides a slight pitching edge and this Braves lineup is simply the better team. My simulations make Atlanta -135 in this spot. Lay it.

The Phillies dropped their first game of a home series between the Braves Friday night. The win sparked a Braves team that had been slumping having lost six of eight. Expect the Phillies' main weakness of their bullpen to be another disadvantage Saturday. Phillies pitcher Zach Eflin has struggled in his last handful of starts, which included a three-inning six earned run outing against Atlanta. Grab the Braves as solid road favorites Saturday.

The Braves got the upper-hand in the first game, but the recent trends favor the Phillies. They've won five of seven overall, while the Braves have lost six out of nine. These teams have split their 10 games thus far, and my model has Philadelphia winning more than 50 percent of simulations despite being the underdog, so take advantage of that value.