At first glance you would think the value lies with the home underdog, but that isn't the case with Arrieta on the mound against this Braves lineup. The .383 wOBA allowed against left-handed hitters is concerning as is the .372 wOBA allowed in 15 innings this month. Mike Soroka has been very tough on right-handed hitters this season and the Phillies, due to injuries, are very right-handed. I make the Braves -137 road favorites.

There's value on the Phillies behind Jake Arrieta, who's looked like a different pitcher since the All-Star Break. While Braves ace Mike Soroka has been dynamite on the road (6-0, 1.13 ERA), he's shown some cracks lately, posting a 4.08 ERA this month and allowing a .329 batting average against. Bryce Harper has had two days off and should be ready to mash. Play the home dog.

My numbers see value Friday on the Braves as short road favorites in their series opener against the Phillies. My projections see Atlanta winning in 62 percent of simulations, providing a relative bargain for the price. Atlanta has won four straight road starts by Mike Soroka and is 9-1 in his outings against NL East opponents. The Phillies are 1-10 in Zach Elfin's starts against winning opponents.