Seattle is again undervalued Thursday against the MLB’s best overall current team in the Boston Red Sox. Boston enjoyed Wednesday off as a travel day, while the Mariners played late into the night at home in an 8-6 win over the Angels. That’s factored into Thursdays line, along with Felix Hernandez’s prolonged struggles in later innings. Yet, the Mariners have showed offensive efficiency recently that will be the side difference. Grab Seattle.

The Mariners are one of the hottest teams in the league, and they've crushed lefties this season to the tune of a .775 OPS and .334 wOBA. Seattle hitters have also done well against Boston starter David Price with a wOBA of .337 and an xwOBA (expected wOBA) of .363. This is good value on a Mariners team that has the third-best record in baseball and is 23-12 at home.

Look for Felix Hernandez to bounce back from his three-inning debacle last time out, and for the Mariners (13-3 last 16 home games) to cool off David Price. Back the home dog.

David Price has looked far better over his last five starts. He is nowhere near as dominant as he was from 2010-16 but he is still 30 cents better than the average pitcher. The Red Sox average 1.2 runs less per game on the road than they do at home. Felix Hernandez has an ERA of 4.04 at home and 7.71 on the road. His home ERA has been inflated by two bad starts out of his seven at Safeco. Go Under.

The projection model has the Mariners toppling the Red Sox in better than half of simulations for their Thursday meeting, making the home underdog a must-play for the plus-money payback. The Mariners are on a 13-3 run in home games, and have won seven of their past eight against AL East opponents.