The trusty projection model tells me the Diamondbacks should beat the Cardinals at least 60 percent of the time in their Tuesday night showdown, giving us a must-play on Arizona with the added incentive of a plus-money payback. Play the underdog in this one.

Sure, Carlos Martinez is on the mound for the Cardinals, but the D-Backs are 29-10 at home, and Taijuan Walker has been an effective starter as well this season. If I can get this type of price with a team that wins 74 percent of its home games, I'm taking it.

Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez has three above-average pitches. His fastball is between 94-97 mph, his slider has late break and he has a lot of confidence in his change-up. The 24-year old Taijuan Walker was a great pickup for the Diamondbacks. Walker has above-average stuff and could turn into a solid No. 2 starter. Expect a good pitching battle when they meet Tuesday, which gives us a strong play on the Under.

The Cardinals hitters should thrive with a large park shift at Chase Field. Taijuan Walker should struggle against a Cardinals lineup that hits right-handed pitching well. Take the Cardinals with their ace on the mound.