Week 6 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of October 8th, 2022

We're getting close to the halfway point of the college football season, which means it's time to sort the contenders from the pretenders. Sorry Kansas fans, it's a really cool story that you're 5-0 and hosting College Gameday for the first time this weekend, but I'm not buying in to your team long term. The same can be said about undefeated UCLA, who smashed my Washington Pac-12 champion and Michael Penix Jr. Heisman futures to pieces with a great offensive display on Friday night. And to a lesser extent, I'd add Penn State to that mix, although the Nittany Lions have no excuses not to finish 10-2 with losses to Michigan (next weekend) and Ohio State (10/29).

Which teams do I believe can be New Year's Six-bound? My current projections with a few comments on each:

Fiesta (semifinal): Ohio State vs. Georgia
Ohio State looks dominant on both sides of the ball and has no excuse to not to run the table in the regular season. Georgia has looked subpar lately and better right the ship before it faces three ranked teams (TENN, @MISSST, @KENT) in a row in November. I'll say the Bulldogs win them all in the regular season before losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Peach (semifinal): Clemson vs. Alabama
I was wrong about Clemson. The only currently ranked team they face the rest of the way is Syracuse. The Tigers will likely go undefeated in the subpar ACC and make the CFP. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide play four currently ranked teams in a row starting next weekend and I'm betting that they won't survive the gauntlet unscathed. But I'll predict that they beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to secure their spot in the CFP.

Orange: NC State vs. Penn State
If the Wolfpack win out, they're in the Orange Bowl, simple as that. Even with one more loss, I'll give them the nod. This also seems like a good spot for Penn State, who should end up no worse than 10-2 as discussed above. 

Cotton: Utah vs. Cincinnati
I have no idea how to sort out the Pac-12 but I'm still not buying into Oregon just yet and Washington has fallen out of favor after their performance at the Rose Bowl last weekend. Utah has the toughest remaining schedule of the four contending teams but I'll give them the Cotton Bowl nod after losing the conference championship game to USC. The non-Power 5 teams aren't great this year, but yet again Luke Fickel's Bearcats appear to be the best of the bunch.

Rose: Michigan vs. USC
The Wolverines should go 11-1, with the lone loss coming at the hands of Ohio State. I expect the Trojans to lose to Utah in Week 7 but avenge that loss in the conference title game. It would be a classic matchup in the sport's grandest setting, even though we'll get to see it more often starting in 2025.

Sugar: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee
Tough call here, but I'll say Oklahoma State avenges a TCU loss in Week 7 to beat them in the Big 12 Championship Game. Ole Miss has an easier schedule than the Volunteers but if both teams end up with two losses, the committee will take the team who didn't play in this game last year.

(As an aside, I gained a newfound respect for those who come up with these bowl projections on a weekly basis. They're definitely more difficult than I anticipated.)

After an 8-7 record in Week 5, my picks sit at exactly .500, 39-39. I've only hit one conference parlay thus far but to be fair, I've only played three- and four-team parlays each week. It might be time to switch up the strategy a bit for Week 6. Though we're fully into conference play, there are only three ranked vs. ranked matchups this week (Tennessee-LSU, TCU-Kansas, and Utah-UCLA) and I'll have a play for each. 

Once again, the purpose of this column each week is to find the best parlay bets by conference. I'll try to keep each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week will be our lottery ticket. If we hit even just one of those all season, it should get us a guaranteed season profit.

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

Tennessee -3 at LSU
Ole Miss-Vanderbilt Under 62
Texas A&M-Alabama Over 51.5
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

Tennessee goes to Death Valley for an early game after a bye week. I know that LSU has won four in a row since the debacle against Florida State in New Orleans, but the Volunteers are simply more talented right now. Hendon Hooker keeps his Heisman hopes alive and the Vols win by a touchdown. Shockingly, no Ole Miss game has exceeded 62 total points this season, yet every Vanderbilt game but one (a 55-3 defeat to Alabama) has gone over that number. I'll buy into the Rebels defense slowing down the shockingly high-powered Commodores' offense. The last four meetings between Alabama and Texas A&M have produced 68, 75, 76, and 79 points. I know Bryce Young is hurt and may not play for Alabama (too soon to tell as of this writing) but I'll take my chances with Alabama still lighting up the disappointing Aggies defense, which gave up 42 to Mississippi State last Saturday.

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 7-8 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 5 overall (+0.71 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Maryland -3 vs. Purdue
Ohio State -26.5 at Michigan State
Illinois ML (-170) vs. Iowa
Parlay Odds: +479 (1.5 units)

Purdue shocked the B1G world with its stunning upset of Minnesota on the road last week. I'll side against the repeat in back-to-back weeks. Maryland has been impressive on offense this season and even hung with Michigan a few weeks ago on the road. The Terrapins win by at least a touchdown. In the last five meetings between Ohio State and Michigan State, the average score has been 43.2-7.6. It's been bad for the Spartans. I know that it's the Buckeyes' first road game of 2022 but I still believe they're good enough to lay the large spread. What a stunning upset by the Fighting Illini, which led to Wisconsin axing Bret Bielema's former assistant, Paul Chryst. I think Illinois keeps it up this weekend but it's hard to lay the 3.5 points in a game that realistically could end up 6-3 or 9-6. The over/under is a stunning 35.5, which is the lowest football total I think I've ever seen. To be safe, I'll take the Illini on the money line in this week's conference parlay.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 6-10 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 5 overall (-6 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Louisville-Virginia Over 50.5
Duke -3 at Georgia Tech
North Carolina State -3.5 vs. Florida State
Parlay Odds: +612 (1.5 units)

Other than last year's 34-33 Virginia win over Louisville, there aren't a lot of trends on both sides that point to over here. Both teams have played more Unders than Overs this season, but I have a feeling this game could turn into another shootout with veteran quarterbacks Malik Cunningham and Brennan Armstrong. It doesn't hurt that the SportsLine game model agrees with me. The most stunning upset of Week 5 might've been Georgia Tech's road win at Pitt. I'm not buying it as a trend though. The Yellow Jackets still stink and the Blue Devils actually aren't half bad. I'll lay the field goal here with confidence. NC State hung with Clemson for three quarters before unfortunately losing and not covering the 6.5 last Saturday night. I was correct though about Wake Forest over Florida State and I feel like this line is at least 3.5 points too light this week. I'm playing the Wolfpack with extreme confidence.

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 8-7 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 5 overall (-5.5 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

TCU -7 at Kansas
Texas -7 vs Oklahoma
Kansas State-Iowa State Over 45
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

My best conference record is in the Big 12, yet I'm more conservative with my units here. I'll keep it that way this week. Kansas has been a great story thus far at 5-0 but honestly, who have they beaten? Houston and West Virginia are nothing special and Duke, well... this isn't basketball. I am all-in on TCU after what I saw last week against Oklahoma. The line is a bit more inflated than I expected but I'll lay the points. Similarly I'm going to give the points with Texas against Oklahoma. The Sooners are a mess and considering the latest concussion drama in the NFL, I'd be shocked if Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel plays. With Texas' starter Quinn Ewers likely back in action, it might be a long day once again for the OU defense. And I haven't even mentioned Longhorns RB Bijan Robinson, who in my opinion, is at the best at his position in the nation. Iowa State has played three home games and all have reached the 50s in total points. The one road game Kansas State played was a shootout against Oklahoma. The Over in this game is my favorite Big 12 conference play of the week.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 10-6 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 5 overall (-5 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

Utah -4.5 at UCLA
Washington vs. ASU Over 57.5
Parlay Odds: +264 (2 units)

Since losing to Florida in Week 1, Utah hasn't played a game closer than three touchdowns. Last year the Utes beat the Bruins at home by just that amount. While it won't be that big of a blowout this time around, I think the Utes keep it rolling with a potential College Gameday visit vs. USC next Saturday. The Huskies have scored at least 32 points in every game this season, and not counting last week's loss to UCLA, that number would be at least 39. In ASU's last four games, all losses, they've given up at least 30 points a game to their opponents, including 42 last Saturday night to USC. I see this game in the 60s at worst. While I was tempted to add a third game to this Pac-12 slate, including my Arizona Wildcats hosting Oregon, I'd rather take the safer bet and try to accumulate those units! For what it's worth, I'll say Oregon beats Arizona, 42-27.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 8-8 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 5 overall (-6.5 units)

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Week 6 College Football parlay picks

Ole Miss-Vanderbilt Under 62
Texas A&M-Alabama Over 51.5
Maryland -3 vs. Purdue
Illinois ML (-170) vs. Iowa
Duke -3 at Georgia Tech
North Carolina State -3.5 vs. Florida State
Kansas State-Iowa State Over 45
Washington vs. ASU Over 57.5

Parlay Odds: +14912 (0.5 units)
Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 5 overall (-2.5 units)

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