Warriors vs. Kings odds, betting strategy: Simulation value, series pick, title chances and more to know

For much of the 2022-23 NBA regular season, the Western Conference standings were topsy-turvy to say the least. Depending on the day, the majority of the conference could be almost jumbled as a snow globe but, at the end, the first round playoff matchups are highly appetizing. In the midst of the league's smorgasbord of offerings on the first weekend of the playoffs, the No. 3 seed Sacramento Kings begin a seven-game matchup against the No. 6 seed Golden State Warriors, with home-court advantage going to Sacramento. 

Sacramento is perhaps the best story in the NBA this season. The Kings are making their first playoff appearance since 2006, snapping the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports. Sacramento did not sneak in either, winning 48 games and ensuring that the last few games of the regular season were rendered meaningless. Led by De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, the Kings are keyed by a dynamic offense, and Mike Brown is the betting front-runner for NBA Coach of the Year in 2022-23. 

On the other side, Golden State endured a much more uneven regular season. The Warriors ended up with 44 wins, navigating a lengthy absence from Andrew Wiggins and struggles on the road and with consistency. However, Golden State is the reigning NBA champion, winning a fourth title in eight years, and the Warriors enter both this series and the entire playoff run with expectations that would be outsized compared to a typical No. 6 seed. 

Below, we'll dig into the series from every angle, including a pick on the winner and a best bet on the series. As the seven-game matchup begins, the Warriors are -275 favorites ($275 to win $100) at Caesars Sportsbook, with the Kings listed at +225 ($100 to win $225) to pull the upset. Golden State is +330 to win the Western Conference this season and +800 to win the 2023 NBA championship. Sacramento is listed at +1600 to win the West and +3500 to win the title.

Warriors vs. Kings full series odds

• Series winner: Warriors -275 | Kings +225
  
• Series handicap: Warriors -1.5 games (-150) | Kings +1.5 games (+115)
• Series alternate handicap: Warriors -2.5 games (+200) | Kings +2.5 games (-260)
• Total number of games: Six (+190) | Seven (+230) | Five (+275) | Four (+440)
• Exact finish: Warriors in 6 (+235) | Warriors in 5 (+350) | Kings in 7 (+500) | Warriors in 4 (+500) | Warriors in 7 (+525) | Kings in 5 (+1000) | Kings in 6 (+1100) | Kings in 4 (+4000)

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