UFC 328 odds, picks, predictions: MMA model reveals projections for Chimaev vs. Strickland fight card for Saturday

UFC heads to Newark, N.J., this week, highlighted by a middleweight title bout between defending champion and unbeaten Khamzat Chimaev and third-ranked Sean Strickland. Chimaev (15-0) is looking to win his 10th fight since joining UFC in July 2020, while Strickland (30-7) is looking to extend his winning streak to two. The main card begins at 9 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+ from Prudential Center in Newark. The latest UFC 328 odds list Chimaev the -590 favorite (risk $590 to win $100), while Strickland comes back at +410.

The co-main event for UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland is a flyweight title bout between Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira. With an 18-1 record, Taira is the -172 favorite (risk $172 to win $100) to utilize in UFC bets. The preliminary card features four fights, with four early prelims.

Before locking in any UFC 328 picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure's proven computer model.

McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!

One of the model's top UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland picks: It is backing Under 2.5 rounds (+3.1% edge) in the lightweight bout of Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon, which returns +157. "My model projects 42.0% probability that this fight finishes Under 2.5 rounds," McClure said. "With a 53% overall finish rate and an average fight length of 2.10 rounds, the numbers clearly support taking the Under here. The combined submission rate sits at 45%. When this fight hits the mat, there's a real chance someone taps. That grappling threat on both sides supports the Under."

The model is also targeting a number of other plus-money UFC bets, including one that returns over +475! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland picks!

Which other fighters do you need to back at UFC 328? ... Join SportsLine now to see which fighters you need to be all over on Saturday, all from the model that showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25!