Last week we were victims of late-game collapses by the defenses of the Packers and Dolphins, as well as a ridiculous Hail Mary touchdown by a QB who seemed unlikely to even play in the game for most of the week. Sometimes, you can't do anything about it but laugh and wonder why you didn't have more confidence in home underdogs like the Browns and Patriots to put them in your five best bets.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm fading one of the surprise teams from last week and taking the Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 against the Cleveland Browns.
Here we have a game that was Chargers -3.5 on the lookahead but has steamed toward Cleveland after Jameis Winston looked better in his first start for the Browns than Deshaun Watson has in any start during his tenure. The caveat for that performance is that the Ravens were down multiple cornerbacks and had the opportunity to make "bad Jameis" pay but couldn't haul in multiple potential interceptions. Now Winston is up against what has been the best scoring defense in football this year, allowing just 13 points per game, and I believe it's unlikely Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore are going to continue to perform at this high a level for the entire season. If last week ends up being the peak of what the passing game can do rather than the new norm, the market's rating on the Browns should come back down a bit.
And let's talk about that line move off the -3.5 lookahead a bit more. It came after a dominant Chargers win over the Saints that would do nothing to lower their rating, and in fact the Chargers could get several key pieces of the passing attack back this week with Quentin Johnston, DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst all practicing in full on Thursday. With the passing offense taking on more responsibility since the bye, having the full stable of pass-catchers available for the first time all season could be big. And the positive line move for the Browns ignores the multiple injuries to key defenders suffered on Sunday, as it seems Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Denzel Ward won't play in this week. That's not to mention David Njoku missing practice with a new injury on Thursday and Joel Bitonio remaining sidelined on the O-line.
The Chargers should have the healthier team and have the "fade big lookahead adjustment" strategy already on their side. I think there's a pretty big gap between these teams right now that the Browns' home-field advantage doesn't make up, so I'm laying it with the road team as a best bet.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last seven years, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last nine seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 9 below.
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