NFL Week 8 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets, best bets and how it all affected the Week 9 lines
Mike Tierney reviews this past week's betting results and previews some of Week 9's line movement
The first seven weeks of the season produced just eight double-digit favorites, emblematic of the parity that has engulfed the NFL.
Then came Week 8. Philadelphia yielded 11.5 points to Pittsburgh, Buffalo 10.5 to Green Bay. The Dallas-Chicago line toggled between 9.5 and 10, with each number offered by various markets.
All three hefty favorites won outright, just as they had in every previous instance but one. (The exception: Steelers over Tampa Bay a week ago.)
Three more double-digit lines greet bettors on the upcoming schedule. Maybe, after seven weeks of mostly low spreads that reflected even matchups, the wheat is separating itself from the chaff. Â
Welcome to our Monday review of the NFL weekend from a betting standpoint and a glance at line movements for the upcoming set of games.
Each Monday in this space, we will recognize the most significant outright wins by underdogs, review the baddest of bad beats, glimpse at the games that most impacted how the sportsbooks fared financially and list the matchups whose lookahead spreads were majorly affected by outcomes and injuries.Â
Top 'Dogs
Bupkus.
With none of the three double-digit 'dogs coming through, the next largest line was 4.5, Atlanta over Carolina. If not for a yank-off-the-helmet celebration penalty, the Panthers likely would have pulled off a mini-upset. Instead, they missed a tie-busting point-after from long range with the score tied, which evolved into a Falcons' overtime victory.
On the 13-game Sunday card, only three underdogs won straight-up. Consider the Commanders - whose last-minute touchdown edged the Colts, a three-point pick, 17-16 - by default as the top 'dogs. (Chihuahuas?) Â
Bad Beats
No shortage here.
Let's start with Atlanta (-4.5), which led by six points inside the final minute of regulation with Carolina at its own 38-yard line. Then, P.J. to D.J. happened. The Panthers' babe-in-the-woods QB, P.J. Walker, threw to WR D.J. Moore, who beat double-coverage for a 62-yard TD that enabled their team to cover -- though it should have won outright.
A pair of coaching decisions led to other tough beats.
Detroit (+3.5), down four points with three minutes left, faced fourth-and-1 at Miami's 35. Rather than a shorter, safer play call, the Lions threw a deep pass that landed uncaught.
The Jets scored a TD against New England that brought the scoring to 38 points at 22-16, 1.5 beneath the total, just inside two minutes remaining. Should they go for one or two? The case could be made for either. New York opted for a PAT, which left the final count of 22-17 a hook shy of the total.
Indy had the Commanders (+3) pinned at their own 11-yard line with 2 1/2 minutes left. Washington, trailing by six, had managed 10 points all day. Somehow it drove long-distance for a TD, delivering the C's a cover as well as a straight-up W.
A bad beat was averted in the Sunday nighter.
Buffalo and Green Bay had hooked up for 44 points, with a total of 46.5 looming. The Packers, down 27-17, needed a TD and a field goal to catch up. With about a minute left, they eschewed a fourth-down pass and attempted a 55-yard field goal that would have tilted the total to Over. It was not close -- the kick, that is. The beat? Mighty close. Â
How The Books Fared
Toss them a towel. The sportsbooks took a bath Sunday.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the five teams most heavily played by the public all won. New England, Tennessee and San Francisco triumphed as favorites, Denver and New Orleans as underdogs. Each was backed by at least three-fourths of the handle.
On the totals front, the three most strongly supported plays swept: the Under on Patriots-Jets and Washington-Indianapolis, the Over on Arizona-Minnesota.
On Sunday morning, Caesars announced three mega-wagers: Broncos +3 for $325,000, Saints +1.5 for $220,000, Vikings -3 for $130,000. Each cashed.
The week's most uneven game wagering at Caesars is the Halloween bash, Cleveland-Cincinnati. It's downright spooky that an Under would draw well over nine of 10 dollars. That's the case here.
Caesars even took a pounding on a prop bet. ESPN reported that nearly 99 percent of the handle fell on the Over for Titans RB Derrick Henry's rushing yards. He exceeded with room to spare, gaining 219.
Here is a quote from a BetMGM official, via ESPN: "Worst week of the season so far."Â
Week 9 Line Moves
The lone significant movement is the Thursday nighter, with perfect-to-date Philadelphia a whopping 13-point pick over Houston. The original spot was 9.5.
One of the other double-figure favorites, Buffalo, has been bumped from 10.5 to 12.5 against the Jets. None of the other spreads shifted by more than 1.5 points.
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