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NFL Week 7 power rankings: Big move in the top five, plus futures odds, sim projections for all 32 teams

With Week 6 in the books, the SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the season 10,000 times and has some surprising futures projections.
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The No. 1 team in last week's power rankings lost a close game on the road on Monday night, but by and large Week 6 was a week of dominant performances for betting favorites. With that being the case, have the Buffalo Bills fallen out of the top spot heading into Week 7?

Short answer: no. But one team has risen three spots up to No. 2 after an impressive win, while last year's Super Bowl teams don't even crack the top three in this week's power rankings.

Updated NFL futures odds from Caesars Sportsbook make Buffalo Bills co-favorites to win the Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +550 each. The Kansas City Chiefs remain at +750, with the Los Angeles Rams next at +850. The Baltimore Ravens move into sole place for fifth-shortest odds at +1000, with the Green Bay Packers and undefeated Arizona Cardinals at +1100. The Dallas Cowboys are the only other team below 20-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl at +1300.

Before you place any futures bets on who wins the Super Bowl and each conference or division, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,700 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 7 of the 2021 season on an incredible 125-85 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP.

Below, you can find the power ranking for all 32 teams based on the model's "neutral sim%," which is calculated based on the number of simulations they win playing healthy (in February) vs. every other team on a neutral field. You'll also find the simulation's projection for how often each team wins their division, conference and the Super Bowl, compared to the current available odds, along with notes from the model's creator, Stephen Oh.

Which team with a losing record has surprisingly climbed into the top 10? And who jumped to No. 2 after a big win against a tough opponent? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 7 power rankings from the proven NFL model which has delivered consistent positive value on its picks!

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SportsLine Staff