NFL Week 7 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets, best bets and how it all affected the Week 8 lines

Welcome to our Monday review of the NFL weekend from a betting standpoint and a glance at line movements for the upcoming set of games.

Each Monday in this space, we will recognize the most significant outright wins by underdogs, review the baddest of bad beats, glimpse at the games that most impacted how the sportsbooks fared financially and list the matchups whose lookahead spreads were majorly affected by outcomes and injuries. 

Buccaneers backers at the betting windows piled on Tampa Bay in Week 6, making it the strongest play on the schedule. They got burned, while the sportsbooks celebrated, as Pittsburgh (+9.5) won outright.

So Bucs Betting Nation figured it would erase the losses in Week 7, devoting about three of every four spread dollars wagered on the game on the Brady Bunch. The line opened at -11, then soared to -13 after Carolina confirmed third-stringer P.J. Walker as its quarterback and traded running back Christian McCaffrey, its premier player.

Fool me once..

Yet again, the Bucs stumbled 21-3. Yet again, the sportsbooks high-fived their good fortune. The books' gravy train might grind to a halt this week, with the Bucs listed at +1 in their Thursday tilt with Baltimore. Then again, once the public learns that Brady's teams have never stood under .500 straight-up after eight games — this one is 3-4 — who knows? It might load up on the Bucs again.

Top 'Dogs

The Panthers' upset might hold up as the head-spinner of the season. Only one game through seven weeks has carried a larger line: Buffalo -14 against the Steelers. The Bills won that one 38-3. Walker threw just 22 times as, in McCaffrey's stead, RBs D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard teamed for 191 rushing yards on just 24 totes. Carolina had dropped 12 of its prior 13 games outright and is operating under an interim coach.

Seattle, spotted five points by the Chargers, rang up 37 at Los Angeles and coasted by two touchdowns behind QB Geno Smith. The Seahawks (4-3 straight-up) moved within one victory of its wins total of five, with 10 more swings of the bat to go.

Green Bay was a mere four-point pick, but Washington's 23-21 ambush had the feel of a top 'dogs candidate. The Commanders leaned on their own stand-in at QB, Taylor Heinicke. He outdid the other active contender besides Brady for the G.O.A.T. among quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers. 

Bad Beats

There were no harsh beats on spread betting, as only five games closed with one-score margins.

That being said, a pair of totals were painful to some players.

Baltimore and Cleveland had collaborated for 43 points — between 1.5 and three below the total, which floated up during the week — that stayed frozen when the Browns had a touchdown pass negated by offensive interference. On a subsequent field goal that also would have delivered an Over, Cleveland was flagged for a false start, which forced a try from 60 yards that missed. Final score: 23-20, Ravens.

New York and Jacksonville collectively had reached 40 points — between two and 3.5 beneath the total, which likewise drifted up during the week — when the Jaguars completed a pass from the Giants' 17-yard line on the final play. Alas, the play was only good for 16 yards and several inches. Final score: 23-17, New York. 

How The Books Fared

Clean-up in aisle four.

No team all season has been pounded more heavily at Caesars than the Chargers, with more than 90% on them. Their loss, along with the Bucs', assured the sportsbook of cleaning up.

The profitable week will be capped Monday night if Chicago covers at New England, which has attracted a lopsided portion of wagering similar to L.A. The Patriots began the day as a pick by 8.5 points, up from the original line of 5 when the status of QB Mac Jones was unclear. He is expected to start.

On the totals front, Sunday was a mixed bag. The public scored on the most avidly bet — Las Vegas versus Houston, which produced 58 points, way above the number. Bettors also raked on the Under for Bucs-Panthers and Jets-Broncos, which plunged from 43.5 to 37 when Russell Wilson was scratched. The majority misfired on Giants-Jaguars and Dallas-Detroit, both of which landed on  Under.

According to ESPN, Caesars was among an assortment of books that thrived but not to the degree of a few prior NFL weekends. It noted that its biggest strike resulted from a couple of sizable money line plays on the Bucs. At the sportsbook PointsBet, it reported, a staggering 96% of the money line handle settled on Tampa Bay.

Week 8 Line Moves

The movement has been downright massive, with a half-dozen dramatic shifts ranging from 5 to 10.5 points. The most astonishing is Jacksonville, which opened at +6.5 against Denver and has flipped to -4.

Two other flips include the 49ers, from +4.5 to -2 facing the Rams, and the Ravens, from +3.5 to -1.5 opposing the Bucs.

The Eagles-Steelers line has exploded, with Philadelphia no longer -3 but -11. Green Bay has become a hefty 10.5-point underdog against Buffalo, up from -4. Atlanta, coming off its first against-the-spread setback of the season, has bounced from -1 to -6 against Carolina.

Looking for the best picks against the spread, sharp plays on the total, and props you can take straight to the pay window? Join Jonathan Coachman on the Early Edge as he speaks with SportsLine's top handicappers to preview the day's biggest games. We promise to keep it short, sweet and to put some green in your pocket. Early Edge is in your feed every single day by 11 a.m. ET. Subscribe right here on YouTube to watch daily, plus don't miss the Early Edge specials and live shows!