Last week, I took seven different teams between the Westgate SuperContest and Circa Sports Million, two Las Vegas football betting contests where you submit five ATS picks each week and compete for a grand prize of up to $1 million. Those seven picks went 4-3. Not bad for Week 1, right? Unfortunately for me, the three picks I had on both cards went 0-3, while the four other picks split between the two cards went 4-0. So I'm starting in a hole in both contests, where you want to after a 3-2 week all season to have a shot at taking home a nice chunk of change, but Week 2 is the perfect time to get back on track.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. Early line movement played a part in one of my contest picks this week: the Chicago Bears -2.5 vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
Before Week 1, the Bears were 3.5-point favorites on the lookahead line. After Sunday, where they were competitive into the second half on the road against what may be an elite Rams team before collapsing, they're 2.5-point favorites, crossing that key number of 3. Some of that can also be attributed to the Bengals pulling off an upset win over the Vikings as three-point 'dogs in Week 1, but those are the teams we should think about fading in Week 2, particularly if nothing happened that should have fundamentally changed our preseason outlook of each team. I think the initial lookahead line of Bears -3.5 was fair value for this matchup, so I like the value we're getting on the other side of 3, and that's why it's making the card in Week 2.
Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below, including one massive underdog I'm putting on both cards.
So which teams should you back in Week 2? And which home favorite wins with ease?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 2, all from the expert who keeps crushing the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!
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