NFL Week 10 best bets: Two picks based on betting systems hitting at more than 63% include Patriots vs. Lions
SportsLine's Jeff Hochman has identified two selections for the NFL Week 10 schedule based on proven betting systems
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Two weeks ago, oddsmakers had the New England Patriots as 1.5-point favorites at a neutral site. After a rough Week 9, the betting market has changed direction.
After giving up 45 points to Green Bay in Foxborough, Mass., the Patriots fly to Munich with almost no time to fix their defensive issues. On Sunday they face Jared Goff and a strong Detroit Lions offense, which averages +0.16 EPA per play and has one of the league's best offensive lines.
Professional bettors quickly backed Detroit, leading to a four-point shift in the line and setting Dan Campbell's team as a 2.5-point favorite. Many casual bettors see European neutral-site games as unpredictable. Still, historical data shows that one side has covered at a 63.0% rate since 2007.
This matchup is one of two I'm attacking in Week 10. The other game features a system with an even better win rate of 78.2% ATS. Both systems have produced a selection rated on a confidence scale ranging from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest).
I've also included my model's score projection, a predictive metric that is entirely independent from the system. When both the system and my model align, I view it as a stronger selection.
(Below, Jeff Hochman shares his two favorite systems plays for Week 10.)
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