Week 18 is the toughest to pick every NFL season, as bettors have to grapple with motivation factors in a number of games. Week 18 this season might be the most challenging to handicap in recent memory, with the cancellation of Bills-Bengals throwing a wrench into what teams in the AFC race will be playing to accomplish this weekend. Even as late as midday Friday we don't have a definitive decision on how playoff seeding and scheduling will work. In one of the two main Vegas contests, which I pick in this space on a weekly basis, the sportsbook didn't even offer a line for Patriots-Bills, taking it off the board as a potential option for all competitors.

Even setting aside the implications of the Bills-Bengals cancellation, there are plenty of injury and motivation angles to consider when making picks. Among the expected starting quarterbacks for Week 18 are Jarrett Stidham, Josh Dobbs, Desmond Ridder, Sam Ehlinger, Nathan Peterman, Skylar Thompson, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Howell and David Blough, and it's possible Gardner Minshew and Chase Daniel are added to that list by Sunday. Some of those quarterbacks are going to cover, and a few may even win their games outright. We know teams like the Titans and Dolphins are motivated to win their games, but will we see full motivation from the rest of the teams on that list?

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8% hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm going against what feels like the sharper side of one matchup and backing a team playing for its playoff life: the Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. the Cleveland Browns.

This line hasn't spent much time at Steelers -3 this week, and now plenty of books are dealing Steelers -2, so I'm not getting a great number here. Some are seeing progress from the Browns offense with Deshaun Watson last week, which I expected when backing the Browns as a best bet in last week's article. But these are fundamentally two teams that want to run the ball, and the Steelers have been a much better run defense this year. The Steelers pass defense's full-season ranking may not look very good, but T.J. Watt missed seven games early in the year, and since his return Pittsburgh has surrendered more than 17 points or even 200 pass yards just once in eight games.

The Browns offense has managed more than 160 pass yards just once since Watson's return, and last week was the first time they scored more than one offensive touchdown in a game during that stretch. Then you get to the motivation factor with the Browns eliminated from the postseason. I'm sure Watson and Co. would love to go into the offseason having knocked Pittsburgh out of the playoffs, but others may already be putting this season in the rear-view mirror, with Jadeveon Clowney getting sent home for comments saying he didn't expect to be back in Cleveland in 2023. Maybe that will help the players who remain focus on the task at hand, but I think it's more likely the Steelers defense dictates the game and gets to Watson for key sacks and turnovers, while the Steelers run game paces the offensive attack and helps lead the team to a win.

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