NFL Week 12 power rankings: Chiefs return to No. 1 spot, plus futures odds, sim projections for all 32 teams

Just four weeks ago, the Kansas City Chiefs appeared to be in real trouble. Coming off a loss against the Titans where Patrick Mahomes and Co. could only muster three points, the defending AFC champs sat at 3-4 and appeared in an uphill battle to even make the playoffs. Wins the next two weeks were couched by the fact they came against the New York Giants in another not-impressive performance and the Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs finally looked like their old selves in Week 10, routing the Las Vegas Raiders 41-14, but the true test came the following week in one of the best teams in the league: the Dallas Cowboys.

Test passed. The Cowboys had to play shorthanded after losing Amari Cooper to the COVID-19 list late in the week and then losing CeeDee Lamb midgame, but any way you slice it, a 10-point win over Dallas is legit. So much so that the Chiefs have vaulted all the way back to No. 1 in the SportsLine power rankings heading into their Week 12 bye.

Updated NFL futures odds from Caesars Sportsbook make the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the sole favorites to win the Super Bowl at +600, but the Chiefs have jumped into the second spot at +750, better odds than any other AFC team. The Buffalo Bills sank to +800 after a walloping at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts (+3000), with two NFC West teams next in the Los Angeles Rams at +850 and the Arizona Cardinals at +900. The Packers sit at +1000 after their loss to the Minnesota Vikings (+6000), followed by the Cowboys at +1100 and the Baltimore Ravens at +1200. The surging New England Patriots come in at +1500, while the current No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Tennessee Titans, check in at just +1800 after a loss to the Houston Texans as massive favorites.

Before you place any futures bets on who wins the Super Bowl and each conference or division, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 12 of the 2021 season on an incredible 130-91 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP!

Below, you can find the power ranking for all 32 teams based on the model's "neutral sim%," which is calculated based on the number of simulations they win playing healthy (in February) vs. every other team on a neutral field. You'll also find the simulation's projection for how often each team wins their division, conference and the Super Bowl, compared to the current available odds, along with notes from the model's creator, Stephen Oh.

How far did former No. 1 Buffalo fall after its blowout loss? And have the Patriots finally cracked the top 10? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 12 power rankings from the proven NFL model which has delivered consistent positive value on its picks!