After a strong 9-1 run, last week was when we hit the wall, but a late swap putting in the Chiefs and taking out the Jets before submitting my final card for Circa Million at least kept me at a manageable 2-3 road bump. At 27-18, we're averaging a 3-2 performance every week through the midpoint of the season, and if we can do just slightly better over the second half, that will be enough to cash in a big-money Vegas contest for the third time since 2015.
One of our losses was an awful pick, as the Seahawks had no chance to cover against the Ravens. But it felt unlucky not to hit on the Cowboys as they seemed like they deserved to win or at the very least push on the +3 line. And the Panthers pick looks terrible on the surface, but their defense showed up and Gardner Minshew struggled on the road as predicted; however, two pick-sixes by Bryce Young turned a tight game into a blowout loss. You can't really do anything about games like that, except wish something in the analysis pushed you away from the pick and to an alternate that hit (the Raiders and Packers were the other two along with Jets I had been considering and both covered).
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a short underdog I don't expect to be popular: the Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs. the New Orleans Saints.
I don't want to read too much into Josh Dobbs' performance after being with the team for only a few days last week, but it's clear he brings enough competence to the offense that we shouldn't expect the team to be largely unable to score, especially at home and especially against a defense that has been shakier over the last four weeks than it was early in the season. The Saints also took a step back on offense last week, and a good Vikings defense could keep pressure on Derek Carr and do a good job against the run, where they rank fifth in yards per play. To me, this spread is the market overrating a Saints team that I don't think is very good, and I have them rated close enough to the Vikings that I believe Minnesota has a good chance to win a close game.
Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks below, along with my large-format survivor pool play for Week 10.
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