This is an interesting week with plenty of favorites of 6 or more points, the first of which failed to cover on Thursday as the Ravens won by just 1 point. I had the Ravens in that game and still think it was the right side, with the Kyle Hamilton injury opening up the passing game in a big way and allowing Ja'Marr Chase to run roughshod in the secondary for the entire second half with big play after big play. If Hamilton has to miss time, all of a sudden the Steelers are looking like live underdogs against the Ravens in Week 11.
But before we get to that game, we have to settle on our contest plays for Week 10. Last week we nailed fading the Browns as our top pick while the rest of the card was hit or miss, including a push on the Patriots-Titans game where I don't know what Jerod Mayo was thinking choosing overtime over a two-point attempt late, which is what Zac Taylor did with the Bengals on Thursday. The Eagles being unable to cover despite being up 22-0 in the third quarter stung as well.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm fading the last remaining undefeated team and taking the Denver Broncos +8.5 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
This is a big number for a Chiefs team that has not been covering big numbers this year, as it's failed to cover in any of the four games where it has been the biggest favorites. And that undefeated record tends to inflate lines the longer a team can hold on to it; for example, the 2007 Patriots covered in all of their first eight games in the midst of their undefeated run but only covered twice through the Super Bowl after that. This is a big test for the Broncos to prove they're a playoff-caliber team after falling flat last week, but this should be an easier offense to defend than Baltimore's last week, especially if Patrick Mahomes isn't 100%. I also love fading a team that played an overtime game on Monday.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert from 2017-23, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks from 2015-23, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 10 below.
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