NFL Week 1 odds, betting trends: Steelers-Bengals, Ravens-Jets, 49ers-Bears taking biggest leans under total
Three games Sunday in particular are taking huge action on Under the total.
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The three games that have a decent chance of seeing rain at some point Sunday in NFL Week 1 are Steelers at Bengals, Ravens at Jets, and 49ers at Bears -- and coincidence or not, those three games are taking the heaviest Under action among all totals at Caesars Sportsbook. The lowest total of any game is 40.5 points in Chicago, down from an open of 43.
It's surely not a coincidence that there are quarterback questions in the three games listed above, either. The biggest money wagered lean on an Under is 87.8% in Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (total 44.5) and the Steelers are giving former Bears draft bust Mitchell Trubisky his first regular-season start since the 2020 finale against Green Bay. Trubisky did look great this preseason, but history is littered with guys who shined in exhibition games and then were terrible when it counted. Pittsburgh also might be without No. 1 wideout Diontae Johnson. He has been limited in practices this week with a shoulder injury. Johnson landed awkwardly on his shoulder after a long catch in the preseason finale. Pittsburgh managed just 10 points in each loss to Cincinnati last year.
A total of 85% percent of the lean is on Under 44.5 points in Ravens at Jets. New York will be starting veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback with Zach Wilson out until at least Week 4. In Flacco's lone start last year, the Jets scored 17 points at home in a loss to Miami. The New York defense was one of the league's worst in 2021, ranking last in points allowed per game (29.7), yards per game (397.6) and first downs per game (23.6).
There's one major injury concern for San Francisco in Chicago as Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle is not expected to play with a groin injury. He had 71 catches for 910 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games last year. It's the third career start for QB Trey Lance, who by all reports looked really shaky this summer, which might have played a major role in the Niners shockingly keeping Jimmy Garoppolo.
Chicago second-year QB Justin Fields completed just 59% percent of his passes with a 73.2 rating last year, both among the league's worst. Fields has perhaps the league's worst offensive line in front him – he ranked 31st in sack percentage in 2021 -- and has essentially nothing at receiver other than Darnell Mooney. A total of 79.9% percent of the money is on the Under 40.5 points.
Last season, Unders were the overall winner at 144-125-3 at 54%, the best rate since 1991. Thursday's Bills-Rams opener also went Under.
The highest Week 1 total is 53.5 points in Chiefs at Cardinals as Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray face off, yet 89.7% of the money is on the Over. Arizona is without Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins due to suspension and fellow wideout Rondale Moore hurt his hamstring Thursday and now is in doubt. Kansas City is 4-0 in season openers with Mahomes and averaging 36.3 points in those games.
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