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NFL futures: Updated model projections, Week 4 power rankings, Super Bowl value picks and more

With Week 3 in the books, the SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the season 10,000 times and has some surprising futures projections.
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Week 3 of the NFL season has come and gone, and just two unbeaten teams remain -- the Miami Dolphins and the Philadelphia Eagles. 

The Eagles were expected to be good, even if some experts didn't foresee Jalen Hurts playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league and A.J. Brown going supernova. But the Dolphins have gotten here by beating the Ravens and Bills. Statistically speaking, Baltimore and Buffalo outplayed Miami for most of those games. Perhaps the Dolphins are a little lucky to be 3-0, and maybe they'll come down off their high sooner rather than later. That doesn't change the fact that 3-0 is 3-0, something that not even the mighty Chiefs and Bills were able to accomplish. 

Full disclosure: no, Philly and Miami aren't atop our power rankings. But they're on the rise. They're teams to fear. And make sure you keep an eye on the Eagles in particular -- their schedule is quite appetizing. Philadelphia could very well become the team to beat before long. 

Updated NFL futures odds from Caesars Sportsbook list the Bills as the favorite to win a ring at +450, followed by the Chiefs at +800. The Buccaneers and Eagles are both +900. The Packers sit at +1000 and the Rams are +1400.

Before you place any futures bets on who wins the Super Bowl and each conference or division, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP.

Below, you can find the power ranking for all 32 teams based on the model's "neutral sim%," which is calculated based on the number of simulations they win playing healthy (in February) vs. every other team on a neutral field. You'll also find the simulation's projection for how often each team wins their division, conference and the Super Bowl, compared to the current available odds, along with notes from the model's creator, Stephen Oh.

How high are the unbeaten Eagles and Dolphins in our rankings? What do the projections think of the Bills after their first loss? And which team is the best value to win the Super Bowl? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 4 power rankings from the proven NFL model which has delivered consistent positive value on its picks!

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SportsLine Staff

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