Juan Soto, Josh Bell reportedly traded from Nationals to Padres: San Diego now fifth favorite on 2022 World Series odds
The San Diego Padres have won the Juan Soto Sweepstakes – and got Josh Bell, too.
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Before today, no player age 23 or younger in Major League Baseball had ever been traded midseason when he was an All-Star. And no player had ever made multiple All-Star teams and changed teams all before turning 24. However, those trends are out of date in the wake of the San Diego Padres reportedly landing Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals ahead of the trade deadline. The Friars also got another good hitter in first baseman Josh Bell from the Nats. Diego's World Series odds at Caesars Sportsbook have changed dramatically. See the SportsLine Projection Model post-trade sim below.
Washington reportedly will get starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore (currently hurt), first baseman Eric Hosmer, and prospects CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III, James Wood and Jarlin Susana. San Diego really didn't hurt its current roster all that badly. Abrams is the likely prize of that group and has played in 46 big-league games this year but was only hitting .232 with two homers and 11 RBI, and he was probably going to be sent down once Fernando Tatis Jr. was back from injury.
The deal will not be official until Hosmer waives his partial no-trade clause. His contract allows him to name 10 teams he cannot be traded to, and the Nationals are one of those 10. Players are typically compensated for waiving no-trade clauses, and the Padres likely would not have allowed negotiations to get this far without confidence that they can work something out with Hosmer. That being said, the clause represents a potential sticky wicket in what would be an earth-shattering deal.
The San Diego lineup will be a force to be reckoned with when Soto, Bell, a healthy Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are all assembled. The team also upgraded its bullpen Monday by acquiring perhaps the best closer in the sport in Milwaukee's Josh Hader.
That Hader deal had dropped the Padres from +2200 to +2000 to win their first World Series. The Soto/Bell trade has San Diego as a +800 fifth favorite at Caesars. The Padres also dropped from +800 to +400 to win the NL pennant. They still have essentially no shot to catch the Dodgers in the NL West, priced +4000 to LA's -10000 and 12 games back.
(Odds on the Mets winning tonight at Washington rose from -320 to -350 with the Nats losing their two best hitters, and that moneyline may well reach -400 behind New York's Jacob deGrom.)
The St. Louis Cardinals and Dodgers were the other "finalists" for Soto – the Cardinals reportedly would not include young outfielder Dylan Carlson, and that was a deal-breaker. I fully expect both those clubs to still do something by the 6 p.m. ET deadline.
| SAN DIEGO | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | LCS | WS |
| w/o Soto and Bell | 88.4 | 64.30% | 0.10% | 67.80% | 2.80% | 1.30% |
| w/Soto and Bell | 90.3 | 55.70% | 0.10% | 79.10% | 5.70% | 3.00% |
| Difference | 1.9 | -8.60% | 0.00% | 11.30% | 2.90% | 1.70% |
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