Fantasy Football Week 1: 32 stats that matter when setting lineups, including why Garrett Wilson has huge upside

If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 1 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets for Week 1.

One player Gibbs is especially high on: Jets WR Garrett Wilson. Gibbs expects Wilson's breakout to superstardom to begin with a huge game against Buffalo's press-coverage in Week 1. However, on the Buffalo side of the ball, there are two players whose outlook worries Gibbs against the Jets. Gibbs says there's a very specific way that he plans to build around the Bills offensive attack in this matchup. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 1? And which pair of teammates does Gibbs think you should leave on your bench? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' Week 1 analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

We're changing up the weekly content that I'll provide this year, and I'm psyched for it! This game-by-game guide is one of the new installments, along with a weekly Lineup Advice article for SportsLine members.

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Wednesday live streams or on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions. I'm aiming to have time to take questions two to three times per week throughout the season.

Here's what stood out to me in Week 1.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

Over/Under -- 39.5 points

Falcons (21.5 points - No. 18) -- 58% of Atlanta's rush attempts were outsize zone looks. The next-highest rate belonged to Minnesota at 41%.

We're going to see a ton of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier attacking there and looking for perimeter gaps leading to open field as the Falcons look to control and set the edge in 2023. That won't be easy in Week 1, as they draw a Panthers defense that ranked third in defensive success rate vs. outside zone rushes allowed the sixth-fewest yards per outside zone rush in 2022.

Panthers (18 points - No. 30) -- Jonathan Mingo was targeted on only 13.8% of his routes this preseason. We saw many teams feature their rookie pass-catchers (Rashee Rice, Quentin Johnston, Jayden Reed, to name a few) this preseason. The Panthers let Mingo run a good number of routes, but he was not very involved as a target drawer. That's what we saw from Mingo in college as well.

Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark both are in danger of missing Week 1's game, but somebody's still going to have draw targets. It could be Miles Sanders. Terrace Marshall is also interesting after a second season that offered plenty of encouraging moments.

How I'm approaching this game:

Take the Under, or just avoid this spot entirely. This is my least favorite game of the week for Fantasy purposes. It's going to take a legendary performance from Bryce Young to move the chains. I think Atlanta will find some success but also stall out a lot. This Carolina defense is going to be tough, especially if Brian Burns ends up playing.

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Over/Under -- 47.5 points

Browns (22.75 points - No. 14) -- Cincinnati's opponents had the fifth-highest opponent average depth of target (aDOT) in 2022. I filtered the 2022 results to only include targets that went to the wide receiver position, and that rate rose from 8.7 to 12.8 yards. The next-highest opposing WR aDOT was 12 yards.

Teams weren't particularly effective when attacking downfield, but they were forced to attack Cincinnati deep with wide receivers while playing from behind.

Amari Cooper went for 5-121-1 in his first meeting with the Bengals but couldn't overcome Deshaun Watson's struggles (2-42 receiving) in a rematch with Cincinnati. Will Watson be better after a full offseason in Cleveland's system?

Bengals (24.75 points - No. 7) -- Man/Gap concept is Cincinnati's most-used (48%) rush scheme. The Browns surrendered the fifth-highest rushing success rate on man/gap concept attempts in 2022.

How I'm approaching this game:

Unless we get the worst version of Watson, this should be a shootout. Either way, I expect Cincinnati to put points on the board, and Joe Mixon is set up for a huge Fantasy game.

For what it's worth, Underdog Fantasy's prop lines imply that Elijah Moore's Fantasy managers will be best served taking a wait-and-see approach.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonvillle Jaguars

Over/Under -- 46.5 points

Colts (21.5 points - No. 18) -- The Colts dropped back to pass on 56% of their first downs this preseason, which would have ranked fifth during the 2022 regular season. Indianapolis' average time remaining on the play clock when Anthony Richardson received a snap was 12.1 seconds, which would have ranked first in 2022.

Jaguars (18 points - No. 30) -- Here's yet another cool way to frame how exciting Calvin Ridley's 2023 target potential is.

How I'm approaching this game:

Indy may play with pace and drop back at a surprisingly high rate as they adjust to life without Jonathan Taylor. I'm actually pretty bullish on Michael Pittman's outlook if you don't have a less risky option on your roster for Week 1. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with Anthony Richardson where I can, but the upside is undeniable. I love him for DFS purposes, as his price tag is way too low for a QB with rushing upside. I think there's a good portion of people who will avoid him after an up-and-down preseason.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over/Under -- 45.5 points

Vikings (25.25 points - No. 6) -- Minnesota ranked second in outside zone rush frequency in 2022, and the Buccaneers allowed the fifth-highest yards per rush on outside zone attempts. Alexander Mattison could pile up the rushing yards if Minnesota builds an early lead.

Buccaneers (20.25 points - 27th) -- Minnesota's projected starting outside corners are Mekhi Blackmon and Akayleb Evans. Evans is a Round 4 pick from 2022 who only made it onto the field for 100 coverage snaps as a rookie and put up a gruesome 40 PFF coverage grade. Blackmon is a Round 3 rookie.

How I'm approaching this game:

I love Jordan Addison's 2023 outlook. I don't love his Week 1 outlook, as the Vikings have him listed as a backup and we often see rookie receivers eased into a full-time role. He has upside if you have to roll with him, but I'd rather wait.

On the Tampa side of things, I think we're starting both Rachaad White and Chris Godwin with a decent bit of confidence, and Mike Evans is a decent option if you have to go there. I'm just as unenthused as you to roster players from a Baker Mayfield-led offense, but the Bucs have a decent implied total for Week 1.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

Over/Under -- 42 points

Saints (22.5 points - No. 15) -- Two teams had an opponent passer rating above 100 on deep attempts (15+ air yards) in 2022, the Detroit Lions (105.2) and Tennessee Titans (117.5). The Titans were by far the easiest team to attack deep against. Chris Olave ran a go route on 28% of his routes as a rookie, the second-highest qualified rate.

Titans (19.5 points - No. 28) -- Derrick Henry averaged 23 rush attempts in games that were decided by 10 or fewer points in 2022. The Titans aren't going to have many favorable projected game scripts. Being listed as three-point home dogs is about as good as it's going to get. We know that Henry eats in neutral game scripts.

How I'm approaching this game:

I'd rather take a wait-and-see approach with both DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo. Of course, if you drafted Hopkins, it was likely with starting contributions from him in mind. So, you may be forced to go there. I expect that the Titans will produce one of the lowest pass attempt numbers in Week 1.

Similarly, I'd like to collect a week of data before trusting Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, or Juwan Johnson. This is a game that will likely feature a lot of Jamaal Williams and Henry on the ground, so we're probably best served leaving it alone.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers

Over/Under -- 41.5 points

Steelers (19.5 points - No. 28) -- Pittsburgh's most frequently used rushing scheme is inside zone, and no defense allowed fewer yards per rush on inside zone attempts than the Niners.

49ers (22 points - No. 17) -- Pittsburgh used man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in 2022. Brandon Aiyuk posted an elite 29% target per route run rate and 2.65 yard per route run rate vs. man coverage in 2022.

Over the past three seasons, Deebo Samuel has been 31% more likely to draw a target against zone coverage than man. The Steelers still use zone on two-thirds of their snaps, so Samuel could still have a great game. It's worth noting any time that the Niners are set to face more man coverage than usual, though.

How I'm approaching this game:

The four core pieces of San Francisco's offense are in play, but Christian McCaffrey is the only player here I'm starting with confidence. Pat Freiermuth is the lone Steeler I actually like this weel. I wrote about that in more detail here. With a 41.5-point over/under, this is a game to mostly avoid.

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

Over/Under -- 38 points

Commanders (22.5 points - No. 15) -- Brian Robinson played in four games the Commanders won by seven or more points in 2022. He averaged 19.8 rush attempts, 80.3 rushing yards, and 12.9 PPR points in those games even though he only found the end zone once.

Cardinals (15.5 points - No. 32) -- In games the in which Cardinals scored fewer than 16 points over the past two seasons, James Conner has averaged 12.7 rush attempts and 51 yards rushing.

How I'm approaching this game:

No Marquise Brown or James Conner for me, if I can avoid them. On the Washington side of things, I'd prefer to not have to use Terry McLaurin, who I'm sure is playing through pain (again, please give your body a rest, Terry!) in a game where the Commanders may only need to pass 20-30 times. Jahan Dotson is a solid flex play, although volume may be an issue. Both running backs are in play, with Robinson standing out as the stronger play due to the expected game script.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans

Over/Under -- 43.5 points

Ravens (26.25 points - No. 3) -- Zay Flowers had a career target per route run rate of 26.5% at Boston College, and his single-season high was 28.1%. Rashod Bateman had a career target per route run rate of 32.1% at Boston College, and his single-season high was 43.3%.

The more I dig into Baltimore's practice reports, the more I am excited for Bateman in Week 1. He's clearly my preference of the Baltimore receivers at this point. Flowers is exciting and could emerge as the top playmaker in Baltimore, but Bateman is the player who has given us more signal.

Texans (17.25 points - No. 31) -- The Ravens had the fifth-lowest opponent yards per rush on zone-schemed attempts in 2022. I'm excited for Dameon Pierce in his new zone-blocked scheme, but not in Week 1.

How I'm approaching this game:

Nico Collins could see massive volume in this spot. He's an okay play if you're desperate. Really, I'd love to avoid Houston with a 17.25-point total.

For the Ravens, you're starting everyone, really. If you want to take a wait-and-see approach with the receivers, that makes sense. There's massive scoring upside here, though.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Over/Under -- 42 points

Bears (21.5 points - No. 18) -- The Packers allowed 16.9 yards per attempt on deep passes in 2022. Justin Fields had the highest aDOT among qualified quarterbacks.

Packers (20.5 points - No. 24) -- No team allowed more yards per target to the wide receiver position than the Bears in 2022.

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm trying to not go overboard in targeting players from this game, given the 42-point total. These are two attackable defenses, though. I expect Green Bay's defense to be better in 2023, and I'm nervous after what we saw from Chicago in the preseason. But line-setters see the Bears winning this one, so I'm cautiously optimistic and will make a few contrarian DFS game stacks out of this one.

On the Green Bay side of things, both running backs are in play, but I would prefer to avoid AJ Dillon. The real intriguing part of Green Bay's offense is the pass-catchers, particularly with Christian Watson sidelined. Chicago struggled mightily against wide receivers in 2022, and both Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are in play in this spot. I'm also all-in on Luke Musgrave here. Musgrave is going to be my Week 1 go-to at TE, and I have him ranked as the TE7 for season-long leagues.

Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Over/Under -- 44.5 points

Broncos (23.75 points - No. 12) -- The Raiders had the NFL's third-highest opponent passer rating on pass attempts that traveled 15 or more air yards in 2022. Among wide receivers drafted into the NFL over the past five years with at least 75 career deep targets, none have a higher yards per target rate on their deep targets than Marvin Mims.

Raiders (20.75 points - No. 21) -- Davante Adams humbled Patrick Surtain Jr. and company last year. Will he do it again in Week 1?

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm comfortable rolling the dice on some of these questionable flex plays if I have to. Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine each have an opportunity to produce double-digit Fantasy points in PPR formats, especially if the Broncos can control the game on the ground as they likely will attempt to do. If Denver is forced to attack through the air, they should find success against this Raiders secondary. Both Mims and Courtland Sutton are interesting upside flex plays if Jerry Jeudy can't go.

For Vegas, Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs are clearly strong starting options, while Jakobi Meyers is a decent option if you're in a pinch and need a flex play whose outlook is less hypothetical than somebody like Mims.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots

Over/Under -- 45 points

Eagles (24.5 points - No. 8) -- A.J. Brown ranks second in yards per route run (3.34) vs. man coverage over the past three seasons, behind only Justin Jefferson (3.46).

Patriots (20.5 points - No. 24) -- The Patriots were one of just five teams that used man/gap concept on over half of their rush attempts. The Eagles ranked seventh in defensive rushing success rate vs. man/gap concept runs.

How I'm approaching this game:

I don't expect Brown to be popular in DFS. I'm excited to target him and Jalen Hurts at depressed price tags and rostered rates.

Philly's running backs are easy to avoid in this matchup. Let's wait and collect some data on how this backfield usage split will be dispersed.

I'm avoiding New England entirely. I'm even benching Rhamondre Stevenson where I can. He should see enough usage to be a viable flex play, but there are plenty of flex options with more upside I would start over Stevenson if I feel comfortable with the rest of my roster's median projection. Stevenson is the RB15 in my most recently updated Week 1 rankings.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

Over/Under -- 51 points

Chargers (27 points - No. 2) -- Miami's secondary is extremely banged-up entering Week 1. Their starting corners to open the season are Xavien Howard and Eli Apple. Howard earned a PFF coverage grade of 56 last year and led the NFL in receiving yardage allowed. Apple's grade was actually worse (55), and he allowed the seventh-most yards.

Dolphins (24 points - No. 11) -- The Chargers were by far the NFL's worst team against outside zone rushing in 2022. Raheem Mostert brings massive upside in this spot.

As my friend and colleague Heath Cummings so astutely pointed out, the Chargers were one of the team's that seemed to figure out Mike McDaniel's offense late last season. We can't assume anything is a given in the NFL, certainly not with Mostert. There is massive upside, but be sure to play responsibly.

How I'm approaching this game:

All-in on the Chargers passing game. Justin Herbert and one or both of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be the most common QB-WR pairings in my DFS lineups in Week 1.

I'm cautiously optimistic about Miami's offensive pieces. I'll be pairing the Chargers passing pieces with Mostert in most of my DFS builds, and Tyreek Hill is an interesting piece to bring it back with on the Miami side of things if you want to go all-in on this game and hope for a shootout.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

Over/Under -- 46 points

Seahawks (25.5 points - No. 5) -- 59% of Seattle's rushing attempts came from zone schemes in 2022, the NFL's fourth-highest rate. Kenneth Walker ranked second in yards per rush from zone-blocked attempts. The Rams had the second-lowest defensive rushing success rate on zone attempts.

Rams (20.5 points - No. 24) -- Seattle allowed the second-most yards per target to the tight end position in 2022.

How I'm approaching this game:

Seattle has a juicy implied total in a super soft matchup. Geno Smith, Walker, Zach Charbonnet, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are all in play.

Van Jefferson has surprisingly decent per-route data when Cooper Kupp has been sidelined, and Puka Nacua's collegiate data paints him as an intriguing sleeper, but Tariq Woolen and the Seahawks were tough against the WR position in 2022. Higbee is the only Ram I feel confident starting.

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

Over/Under -- 45 points

Giants (20.75 points - No. 21) --  The Cowboys are one of just eight teams to use Cover-1 on at least one-fourth of defensive snaps in 2022. Over the past three years, Darren Waller has a 29.5% target per route run rate and 2.78 yard per route run rate vs. Cover-1, up from 22.9% and 1.71 vs. all other coverage types.

Cowboys (24.25 points - No. 10) -- Lamb piled up 23 targets in two meetings with this Giants defense in 2022.

How I'm approaching this game:

With this being a Sunday night game, we don't have the opportunity to build DFS stacks around Lamb and Waller at a discounted rostered rate, unfortunately. They'll be popular plays on the Sunday night showdown slate, of course. I'll have a Sunday night DFS article published on SportsLine if you plan to play the showdown slate.

For season-long lineup setting purposes, I'm in on Jake Ferguson in this spot. The Giants have been an easy spot to attack with tight ends for some time now, and the second-year Round 4 selection appears likely to play a near every-down role to start the 2023 season. I'm also absolutely okay with Brandin Cooks in this spot. He's the WR34 in my most-recently published Week 1 rankings.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

Over/Under -- 45 points

Jets (21.25 points - No. 20) -- Garrett Wilson's monster rookie campaign could get started with a bang if the Bills decide to press him.

Bills (23.75 points - No. 12) -- These Jets corners are scary and have a tangible impact on target distributions.

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with the Jets RB room where I can, but there's definitely upside for either assuming they both still have the juice. You could do a lot worse if you're looking for an upside flex play. I'm hoping to only be invested in Garrett Wilson from the New York side of things on Monday.

I'm taking a specific approach with Buffalo, and that is assuming that the Bills will struggle to push the ball down the field to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. My Monday night DFS builds will center around Wilson at captain with some James Cook and Dalton Kincaid mixed into the captain spot as well, and I'll be fading Diggs and Davis. For season-long purposes, both Cook and Kincaid are fringe starters with exciting upside in this matchup.

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