Buffalo Bills 2019 third-round pick Devin Singletary showed promise as a rookie, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and providing several electric plays as both a rusher and receiver. While operating as the team's starter from Weeks 8-16, Singletary ranked as the RB17 in Fantasy.
Despite his small stature, Singletary was used as a workhorse in the games he was healthy for. In 10 healthy games, Singletary played 73.8 percent of the offensive snaps, which would have ranked seventh among all RB last season. Running backs such as Chris Carson (70 percent), Nick Chubb (66 percent), Derrick Henry (63 percent), and Aaron Jones (61 percent) are thought of as "workhorse backs," but each had a snap rate that was lower than Singletary's mark in games he started and completed.
So, considering his top-20 Fantasy finish and 74 percent snap rate in games he wasn't injured, shouldn't Singletary be considered a clear steal in Fantasy drafts at his current ADP of RB24? Well, if there is any truth to the reports that Bills GM Brandon Beane expects third-round selection Zack Moss to play a role similar to Frank Gore's from last year, Singletary might actually end up being one of the most overvalued players in all of Fantasy.
The problem with Singletary is a clear lack of touchdown upside if Zack Moss is heavily involved on the goal line. The 5'7" and 203 pound back ranked just third on the team behind Gore (25) and Allen (21) with 18 red zone rushes as a rookie, and the discrepancy was glaring when comparing their carries from within the 10-yard line. Gore (18) and Allen (11) dominated the rushing load when near the goal line, while Singletary saw just three carries from that range.
Even though Gore was literally the least efficient player in the NFL on touches that came from inside the 10-yard line, Buffalo still refused to give Singletary opportunities from that distance. Gore gained just four yards and scored only two touchdowns on his 18 carries from within the five, but he still got fed. Meanwhile, Moss reached the end zone 17 times last year and scored double digit touchdowns in each of his three seasons as a starter. It's entirely possible that the 223-pound rookie has way more juice than a 37-year old Frank Gore, so I'd expect him to have an easy time holding onto at least the 56 percent market share of carries Gore got from within the 10.
If that comes to fruition, Singletary's role for 2020 doesn't project as one that is very Fantasy friendly. In addition to occasionally vulturing red zone rushing touchdowns, Josh Allen threw dump-off passes at the lowest rate of any QB in the NFL last year. Allen's gunslinger mentality and ability to scramble combine to put a serious cap on the amount of targets any RB will see in this offense. Only three teams threw to their RB at a lower rate than the Bills in 2019. So, even with a high snap rate, Singletary is likely to be missing the two most important ingredients for a high-upside Fantasy RB: involvement in the red zone and passing game.
This doesn't mean Singletary is a guarantee to finish below his ADP of RB24. As mentioned already, he was the RB17 during the weeks he was healthy last year. Even with a clear cap on his touchdowns and targets, Singletary could again finish as a top-20 Fantasy RB if he maintains his unexpectedly efficient production on the ground and is able to hold off Moss from claiming a larger role than Gore's in 2019. Still, what is the upside without red zone or receiving work? I don't see a path to a top-12 Fantasy RB finish for Singletary, so I'll be closely watching Buffalo's RB usage this preseason. If Moss were to overtake Singletary, or if Singletary went down with an injury, it's possible we could see Moss as a three-down back with goal line work. Since the same can't be said for Singletary under any circumstance, I'd much rather take a late-round flier on Moss than invest a fourth- or fifth-round pick into Singletary.
