Fantasy football: Don't risk a top-15 pick on Josh Jacobs
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs says the risk is not worth the reward when considering using a first-round pick on Josh Jacobs.
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Josh Jacobs had one of the strongest rookie running back seasons we have seen in some time, but it may have flown under the radar because it came as a member of an irrelevant Raiders squad. And while Jacobs' pedigree and the Raiders' strong offensive line suggest that another strong season as a rusher is on tap, the team's offseason moves point towards Jacobs again being limited as a pass-catcher. And if he's going to pay off his current average draft position (ADP) as the 11th player and ninth RB off the board, Jacobs will almost certainly need to take a step forward as a receiver. Fantasy upside at the RB position is dependent on targets, which have been worth 2.74 times as many Fantasy points as a rushing attempt on average.
Entering the 2019 NFL Draft, Jacobs was touted as being capable of contributing as a pass-catching option out of the backfield. However, just 27 targets prevented Jacobs from showcasing that ability as a rookie, which could again be the case in 2020.
The Raiders gave third-down specialist Jalen Richard a two-year extension this offseason, while also using multiple draft picks on complementary pass-catchers. Las Vegas made Henry Ruggs the first wide receiver selected with the 12th overall pick, and they followed that up by using their third selection on RB/WR hybrid Lynn Bowden out of Kentucky. Considering his lack of involvement even in last year's talent deprived offense, it seems safe to expect Jacobs' receiving work be quite limited while playing in a revamped offense in 2020. So, will Jacobs' lack of involvement in the passing game again limit his ceiling, or can he be the type of unique rusher who is efficient enough on the ground to warrant an early-round consideration in Fantasy drafts even with little receiving work?
As a rookie, Jacobs finished first in the NFL in PFF's elusiveness rating. He had the second-highest PFF rushing grade behind only Nick Chubb, and he was the RB8 in Fantasy from Weeks 1-11. His Fantasy season was ultimately derailed by a shoulder injury that he played through from Week 7 on, but the efficiency numbers were strong enough to provide Fantasy owners a glimpse at the type of talent Jacobs is.
Among backs with 200-plus carries, only four broke tackles at a higher rate than Jacobs in 2019. He ranked third among that group in yards after contact per carry. There were few backs who were more difficult to bring down than Jacobs in 2019.
Not only was the efficiency there for Jacobs, he also ranked ninth among running backs in touches per game and sixth in red zone carries per game. When that type of efficiency is combined with a massive workload, the potential is there for a 1,500 rushing yard season if Jacobs can stay healthy for 16 games.
So, is Jacobs talented enough to turn 275-plus carries into a top-10 Fantasy RB season even if the targets aren't there? Absolutely. From all indications, he is already one of the best pure rushers in the NFL. But for Jacobs to see that type of workload on the ground, the Raiders are going to have to be regularly playing with positive game scripts in 2020. I have no problem placing my trust in Josh Jacobs the player, but I am not so keen on betting on the Raiders -- especially when the cost of the bet is one of my first picks in the draft.
With limited access to targets, Jacobs' Fantasy ceiling is predicated on Las Vegas' ability to keep games competitive. In 2019, the Raiders were among the most run-heavy teams when playing with a tie or lead. Their 50 percent run rate in that split ranked 10th in the NFL, and Jacobs was on the field far more in those circumstances. 71 percent of his rushing attempts and 66 percent of his rushing yardage came while playing with a tie or lead, despite Las Vegas only playing with a tie or lead 58.9 percent of the time when on offense.
The Raiders were 6-7 in games Jacobs played as a rookie. He averaged 20.7 Fantasy points in wins but just 9.8 in losses. Jacobs' 62.6 percent snap rate in games the Raiders won dropped to just 50.5 percent in losses. He averaged 24.2 touches in wins, which dropped to just 16.7 touches per game in losses.
If Las Vegas is able to exceed its 7.5-game win total for 2020, Jacobs could very well exceed his rookie rushing production. However, if the Raiders are again just a middle-of-the-pack team, Jacobs might not be on the field enough to make Fantasy owners glad they invested an early-round pick into him. I am not expecting the Raiders to exceed their win total, which helps explain why he's ranked as just my RB13 in PPR formats. I'd gladly take Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire over Jacobs in any PPR format, although I could understand selecting him as a top-eight RB for standard leagues.
So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.