Fantasy football 2021 rest of season WR rankings: Cooper Kupp undeniably in Tier 1 and full positional tiers
Get the latest rest-of-season rankings for the WR position from one of the nation's premier fantasy experts.
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Now seven weeks into the season, even wide receivers like Tee Higgins and A.J. Brown who dealt with injuries to start the season have topped the 150-route mark, and we're getting close to having a trustworthy sample size to draw conclusions from. 350 is the number of routes I typically use as a qualifier if examining a full season's worth of data, but there is a notable dropoff in volatility around the 150-route mark as well.
Chris Godwin leads the league with 298 routes run, and 52 players are already over the 200-route mark. We're at the point in the season where we have just enough data to feel reasonably confident in our understanding of the types of roles these receivers are playing. Surprisingly stellar usage for players like Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Marquise Brown becomes more and more likely to stick with each passing week. The elevated rates we've seen from budding superstars like Justin Jefferson, D.J. Moore, and Terry McLaurin are beginning to look like legitimately trustworthy trends that support the upward trajectory most expected their careers to continue to follow in 2021.
And even at this point, we're still learning new things at the WR position with each passing week. After evaluating the data and sharing What We Learned in Week 7, I'm ready to lay out my rest-of-season rankings at the wide receiver position heading into Week 8. Here's where I'm ranking each WR going forward, given the data we have through seven weeks.
1. Davante Adams
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Cooper Kupp (+2)
4. Justin Jefferson (-1)
5. Stefon Diggs (-1)
6. A.J. Brown (+6)
7. D.J. Moore
8. Calvin Ridley
9. D.J. Moore
10. DeAndre Hopkins
Notable changes:
Well, Cooper Kupp finally made the leap into Tier 1!
I have been hesitant to rank him in a way that is truly representative of his production and underlying volume metrics, but Kupp has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down. It's really rare for a 28-year-old receiver to make this type of leap, but we have a 245-route sample size of Kupp drawing usage that is truly unique to only one or two receivers per season. I didn't want to overreact to it, but with each week I become more inclined to believe what Kupp's underlying data tells us -- he is a top-five Fantasy WR who may very well finish the season as the WR1.
L.A.'s Week 7 Usage Report will show a monstrous 13 targets and 136 air yards for Kupp in Week 7, and he now has a 31.7 percent target share and 34.4 percent air yardage share for the season. He has also been targeted on 35.1 percent of his red zone routes, which is the highest rate of any receiver in the NFL. Seeing this type of volume as a member of one of the best offenses in the NFL has made Kupp a Fantasy cheat code.
It has come on a more limited sample size, but A.J. Brown is one of the few receivers with rate stats that can come close to rivaling Kupp's. Kupp leads the NFL with a 33.1 percent target per route run (TPRR) rate, and Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel are the only other two receivers with a rate above 30 percent. Brown's rate sits at 27 percent (eighth in the NFL), and his 35.3 percent rate over the past two games is the highest in the NFL during that time.
Brown's impressive 2021 rates represent a continued progression in what has been one of the most statistically impressive starts to a career for any receiver in recent memory.
He's not only drawing targets at a higher rate, Brown also is benefitting from a higher percentage of his targets coming in high-value situations.
Specifically, Tennessee targeted Brown on 50 percent of his first down routes in Week 7. First down targets are worth roughly 15-to-20 percent more Fantasy points than all other targets, and Tennessee has made a noticeable change in how often they send the ball in Brown's direction on first downs in his third season.
Brown's 50 percent first down target per route run rate marked just the second game in his career in which he's been targeted on at least half of his first down routes -- both games have come in 2021. On the year, Brown's 41.5 percent TPRR rate on first downs leads all players; only Deebo Samuel (39.2 percent) and Davante Adams (38.6 percent) are also above 32 percent.
The Titans also have schemed play action targets for Brown at a higher rate than any player in the NFL. Historically, play action routes have provided a boost in efficiency for wide receivers, and that has definitely been the case for Brown. He's averaged 4.25 yards per route run on play action plays for his career -- which is absolutely insane -- compared to 1.83 on non play action routes.
Only four receivers have more play action targets than Brown in 2021, which is hard to believe when you consider how many fewer routes he has run than those players. He's been targeted on an absurd 50 percent of his play action routes; the next-highest mark among qualified players is Deebo Samuel's 37.5 percent rate.
A player of Brown's caliber receiving this type of concentrated volume is extremely exciting -- he's produced at an elite level through outlier efficiency through the first two seasons of his career, so elevating his volume to an elite level could yield some really ridiculous results.
It's important to remember that Brown's 2021 rates are representative of just a 159-route sample size. I don't want to overreact at this stage in the game, which is why he has yet to crack the top-five. But, with continued usage similar to what we've seen in recent weeks, Brown will absolutely vault himself into the Tier 1 conversation.
Which other WRs jumped up the rankings with great Week 7 performances? And which WRs are moving out of startable territory? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' rest of season Fantasy Football Rankings, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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