Does anyone want to win the incredibly mediocre NFC South? It only took eight wins to do so in 2022, and that's all it might take this year as the division co-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) host the playoff-eliminated Atlanta Falcons (4-9) on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 15. The Bucs are -4.5 with a total of 44 for the 8:15 ET kick on Prime Video.
This is one of the most wide-open Super Bowl races in recent memory. There are 23 teams still officially still in contention, the fewest with four weeks left to play since 2005. And this marks the only time in the past 15 seasons that no team has a division lead of more than two games in Week 15 or later.
Tampa Bay was in control of the NFC South at 6-2 coming out of its Week 9 bye but has dropped four of five to fall into a tie with the surging and surprising Carolina Panthers -- coached by former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales.
Those clubs still have both meetings to go, with Tampa Bay in Charlotte in Week 16 and hosting the Cats in Week 18. Seems fairly unlikely the division runner-up gets an NFC wild card spot. The Bucs are currently -300 division favorites and the same price for the playoffs with No at +235. The SportsLine Projection Model has them finishing with 9.5 wins -- preseason betting total was also 9.5 -- and with a 75.2% shot at the division with essentially the same for the playoffs. A win and that number rises to 83.0% while a loss drops it to 59.2%.
Really nothing to see here with Atlanta, which almost surely makes a head coaching change, among other major moves, this offseason as it will finish with a losing record and miss the playoffs for an eighth straight year.
Raheem Morris was often considered a bit of a head-scratching choice when hired as head coach in January 2024 over the likes of Bill Belichick, and Morris is currently the -300 favorite as next head coach fired. He might have been Sunday night after an embarrassing 37-9 home loss to Seattle if the Falcons weren't on a short turnaround this week. Morris is 12-18 in his tenure and 6-15 since the team's 6-3 start last season.
"He is 100% in support of me," Morris said after the Seattle loss regarding Falcons owner Arthur Blank. "Support ain't an issue. He is absolutely outstanding."
The Falcons can still land over their preseason win total of 7.5 but obviously would have to win out. Considering they haven't won three games in a row since Weeks 4-6 last year, that seems quite unlikely. The model has them finishing at 5.9 wins.
We'll take you through every aspect of the Falcons vs. Bucs game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.
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