Cowboys' Tyron Smith could miss season: Dallas' NFC East title odds shift without Pro Bowl left tackle as Eagles nearly pull even
The Dallas Cowboys have taken a massive hit on their offensive line.
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The Dallas Cowboys have received devastating injury news. Eight-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith, a member of the NFL's 2010s All-Decade Team, could miss the 2022 season with a hamstring and knee injury suffered in practice Wednesday. He could have surgery as soon as today pending a potential second opinion. The SportsLine Projection Model has downgraded the Cowboys across the board. Their odds to win the NFC East got slightly longer -- and Philadelphia has nearly pulled even.
Smith was hurt on a running play and went to the ground as he went to make a block on linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport tweeted that "Smith suffered an avulsion fracture of the knee, meaning the hamstring tendon that sits at the back of the knee pulled off the bone." It's possible but far from a sure thing he could return in December.
The four-time All-Pro is a Hall of Fame-caliber player when healthy but hasn't played a full season since 2015. He was limited to two games in 2020 and 11 last year but still named a Pro Bowler. In those 13 total games, the Cowboys averaged 4.8 yards per carry, 7.8 yards per pass attempt and had a quarterback sack percentage of 4.2. In the 20 he missed, Dallas averaged 4.1 yards per carry, 7.1 yards per pass attempt and had a sack percentage of 6.2.
According to ESPN, Smith has the highest run block win rate (78.6%) over the past four seasons (minimum 900 run block plays). Over the past five seasons, Ezekiel Elliott has averaged 4.5 yards per carry with Smith on the field and 4.0 yards with him missing. In that span, 12% of Elliott's runs of 10 yards or more have come with Smith on the field and 9% without him. For his career, the Cowboys are 17-16 without Smith.
The Cowboys did select offensive lineman Tyler Smith at No. 24 overall in this year's draft out of Tulsa to eventually replace Tyron Smith, but Tyler Smith has been playing left guard during camp and in the first two preseason games, and also is dealing with an ankle injury. At Tulsa, Tyler Smith started 21 games at left tackle the last two seasons and was called for 16 penalties (12 holding).
Could a trade be possible? The New England Patriots are listening to trade offers for offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn, a first-round pick in 2018, according to a report from Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer. Wynn is set to earn a guaranteed $10.413 million in 2022. According to Overthecap.com, the Cowboys have about $21.5 million available in cap space.
The SportsLine Projection Model dropped the Cowboys from 10.1 wins to 9.7 and a 48.1% chance to win the NFC East to 40.6. To make the playoffs, Dallas dropped from 73.4% to 65.4%.
At FanDuel, the Cowboys are now slight +145 favorites in the NFC East ahead of Philadelphia (+155). The model favors the Eagles to win the division at 44%.
Dallas is +1.5 at home for its season opener at home vs. the Buccaneers, who are dealing with their own injury issues on the offensive line.
| DALLAS | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Tyron Smith | 10.1 | 59.40% | 48.10% | 73.40% | 10.10% | 4.70% |
| w/o Tyron Smith | 9.7 | 57.10% | 40.60% | 65.40% | 7.30% | 3.30% |
| Difference | -0.4 | -2.40% | -7.50% | -8.00% | -2.80% | -1.40% |
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