A first round 2022 NCAA Tournament matchup is set between No. 5 seed Connecticut and No. 12 seed New Mexico State at 6:50 p.m. ET on Thursday at KeyBank Center. The Huskies are 23-9 overall, while New Mexico State is 26-6 overall. UConn finished third in the Big East; New Mexico State won the WAC. 

The Huskies are favored by 6.5 points in the latest Connecticut vs. New Mexico State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under is set at 132. Before you make any New Mexico State vs. Connecticut picks and predictions, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $1,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has simulated Connecticut vs. New Mexico State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 70 percent of simulations. You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.

So who wins Connecticut vs. New Mexico State? And which side of the spread hits over 70 percent of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.