Computer updates Cowboys' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the first wave of NFL free agency.
The Dallas Cowboys are one of the most high-profile franchises in the world and every offseason there's a pressing need to move the team towards competing for a championship. And after a disappointing 8-8 season that left them out of the 2020 NFL Playoffs and saw Jason Garrett replaced with former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, the 2020 offseason was always going to be one of the most highly-scrutinized.
With both Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper set to hit free agency, the Cowboys made the difficult decision to franchise tag Prescott and signed Cooper to a five-year, $100 million contract. Prescott would make $33 million in 2020 after the Cowboys chose to use the exclusive tag, but now they've got until July 15 to get a long-term deal done or risk a holdout. Prescott has been rumored to have been asking for somewhere in the neighborhood of $40 million per season.
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The Cowboys also notably re-signed tight end Blake Jarwin, linebacker Sean Lee and cornerback Anthony Brown and are hoping to bolster their defense with the free agency additions of defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. However, they lost cornerback Byron Jones to the Dolphins, defensive end Robert Quinn to the Bears and wide receiver Randall Cobb to the Texans while Jason Witten now moves to the Raiders after 16 seasons in Dallas.
The Cowboys still have an estimated $24.2 million in cap space and could free up some more room by restructuring a couple contracts or by getting a long-term deal done with Prescott that is back-loaded. So they're still likely to be factors in free agency and on the trade market leading up to and beyond the 2020 NFL Draft.
But what should we make of these moves so far? Getting Prescott and Cooper back under contract was always going to be the priority and cost-effective additions like McCoy and Clinton-Dix are nice, but losing playmakers like Jones, Quinn and Cobb as well as the leadership of Witten will be tough to handle.
And they'll need to have an extremely strong draft and close out free agency well in order to put together a roster that can help them push past contending for a weak NFC East crown and little else. That being said, the talent on this roster is still evident and the SportsLine Projection Model currently projects that Dallas wins 9.6 games on average over its 10,000 simulations, winning the division 55.7 percent of the time and making the postseason 68.4 percent of the time.
However, that is down from 10 projected wins prior to the start of free agency. William Hill Sportsbook currently lists them at 12-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which are the fifth-best odds of any team in the NFL.
