Computer updates Chiefs' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the first wave of NFL free agency.
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When Patrick Mahomes exploded for 5,097 passing yards and 50 passing touchdowns in his first season as a starter before the Chiefs dropped a thrilling AFC Championship Game to the Patriots two seasons ago, many assumed that it would only be a matter of time before Mahomes and the Chiefs would hoist the Lombardi Trophy. And after experiencing some adversity with an injury in the middle of the season, Mahomes and the Chiefs eventually lived up to the hype.
Kansas City erased a 10-point deficit at Super Bowl LIV with a 21-point run in the fourth quarter and to capture their second Super Bowl championship. It was Andy Reid's first title as a head coach and now the window is open for the Chiefs to contend on an annual basis with arguably the NFL's best player leading the way.
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However, keeping that title window open means that the organization has to make wise roster decisions moving forward and Kansas City entered the 2020 NFL offseason with Mahomes looking to begin discussions about a new contract. Knowing that they'll need a sizable chunk of change whenever that deal gets done and that left them somewhat hamstrung in NFL free agency.
The Chiefs had to let Kendall Fuller and Emmanuel Ogbah walk in free agency and also lost role players like Stefan Wisniewski, Blake Bell and Jordan Lucas. They were able to re-sign DeMarcus Robinson, Mike Remmers and Mike Pennel, but thus far they haven't brought any new free agents in and given that they're currently estimated to be nearly $2 million over the salary cap, it seems unlikely they'll make any significant signings.
So now the Chiefs will look to the 2020 NFL Draft to fill any holes in their roster. In a class that's deep in wide receiver talent, it will be interesting to see if Kansas City acquires additional playmaking talent for Mahomes. And the Chiefs would also like to improve their running game and upgrade their run defense in 2020.
But even if they don't land an immediate difference-maker in the 2020 NFL Draft, this is a roster that should be more than equipped to compete for a championship again in 2020. As long as Mahomes is healthy, the Chiefs offense is capable of erupting at a moment's notice, which means they're never really out of any game they play.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 time and the Chiefs win an average of 11.9 games in those simulations and make the postseason 98.2 percent of the time while winning the AFC West 86.8 percent of the time. That is a slight drop from the 12.0 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Chiefs at 4-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which is best odds in the NFL.
Written by Ryan Wooden
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