Clippers vs. Suns odds, betting strategy: Simulation value, series pick, title chances and more to know

After a flurry of activity at the end of the regular season and a sprint through the play-in tournament, the 2023 NBA Playoffs begin this weekend with four games on both Saturday and Sunday. One of the most anticipated matchups of the first round pits the No. 4 seed Phoenix Suns against the No. 5 seed L.A. Clippers. The series will begin on Sunday at Footprint Center in Phoenix, with the Suns entering with sky-high expectations following the mid-season acquisition of Kevin Durant.

The Suns infamously imploded in the 2022 NBA Playoffs after earning the No. 1 seed, falling in historic fashion at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks. After a solid but unspectacular start to the 2022-23 campaign, Phoenix unleashed the epitome of an all-in move, sending myriad assets to Brooklyn to land Durant. Though Durant was injured for a significant part of the second half, Phoenix was able to secure the No. 4 seed with a 45-37 record, and many believe the Suns are much more dangerous than that mark suggests.

For L.A., it was a topsy-turvy season that was filled with injury concerns and an overall performance that did not live up to expectations. The Clippers posted a 44-38 overall record that managed to lift L.A. out of the play-in, but the Clippers do face a difficult matchup. In addition, standout wing Paul George is expected to miss the start of the series with a knee injury that has sidelined him since March 21. That leaves Kawhi Leonard in position to operate as the single star for the Clippers against Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton.

Below, we'll dive into the series from every angle, including a pick on the winner and a best bet on the series. As the series begins, the Suns are -550 favorites ($550 to win $100) at Caesars Sportsbook, with the Clippers listed at +410 ($100 to win $410) to pull the upset. Phoenix is +190 to win the Western Conference this season and +425 to win the 2023 NBA title. L.A. is listed at +1600 to win the West and +4000 to win the championship.

Clippers vs. Suns full series odds

• Series winner: Suns -550 | Clippers +410
  
• Series handicap: Suns -2.5 games (-105) | Clippers +2.5 games (-125)
• Series alternate handicap: Suns -1.5 games (-190) | Clippers +1.5 games (+160)
• Total number of games: Five (+210) | Six (+240) | Seven (+275) | Four (+360)
• Exact finish: Suns in 5 (+230) | Suns in 4 (+325) | Suns in 7 (+370) | Suns in 6 (+375) | Clippers in 6 (+900) | Clippers in 7 (+1100) | Clippers in 5 (+4000) | Clippers in 4 (+5500)

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