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Chiefs vs. Cowboys lines, picks: Proven NFL model reveals picks for Week 11 matchup

SportsLine's projection model simulated the Week 11 game between Kansas City and Dallas 10,000 times and revealed its results
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The Kansas City Chiefs will seek their fourth consecutive victory when they host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. AFC West-leading Kansas City (6-4) is coming off a 41-14 triumph at Las Vegas, while Dallas (7-2), which sits atop the NFC East, trounced Atlanta 43-3 at home last week. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Cowboys odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 55.5.

Before making any Cowboys vs. Chiefs picks of your own, you NEED to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-89 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP.

The model knows Kansas City has catapulted from last place in the AFC West to first during its winning streak as it looks to capture its sixth consecutive division title. Patrick Mahomes was in superb form last week, throwing for a season-high 406 yards and five touchdowns en route to earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. The 26-year-old superstar ranks second in the NFL in both passing yards (2,940) and TD tosses (25). 

The model also knows Dallas completely dominated the Falcons last Sunday, when it set a franchise record for most points in a quarter with 29 and recorded its biggest halftime lead (36-3) in 50 years. Dak Prescott threw a pair of touchdown passes for his sixth straight multi-TD performance and seventh in eight outings this season. The Cowboys are first in the league in total offense (433.9 yards) and scoring (31.6 points) while ranking fourth in passing (294.3 yards) and rushing (139.6).

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Cowboys. We can tell you it is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread has ALL the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NFL picks.

Who wins Chiefs vs. Cowboys on Sunday? And which side of the spread has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Cowboys vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 128-89 roll on NFL picks

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SportsLine Staff