Baltimore Ravens will go under 11.5 wins according to one NFL betting trend
The Baltimore Ravens have a win total of 11.5 at William Hill sportsbook. Here's why bettors may want to wager Under that mark.
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The Baltimore Ravens look like a stellar team on paper. They led the NFL with 14 regular-season wins in 2019. They have the reigning NFL MVP in quarterback Lamar Jackson, who set a league record for a QB last year in rushing for 1,206 yards while also leading the NFL with 36 touchdown passes.
Baltimore's defense is one of the NFL's best, and by all accounts the team absolutely killed it in this year's draft with the likes of LSU linebacker Patrick Queen and Ohio State tailback JK Dobbins. Shoot, the Ravens even have arguably the best kicker in NFL history in Justin Tucker. There are no holes on the roster. Yet, it's probably wise to bet Under their win total of 11.5 at William Hill sportsbook.
Why? Baltimore had a win total of 8.5 entering last year and exceeded that by 5.5 victories. In the past five seasons, the five teams to top their betting win total by at least four games have all gone Under their total in the following year – by a combined 15 games.
The 2019 Chicago Bears succumbed to this. They went 12-4 the year before when they had a win total of 6.5. Last year, Matt Nagy's team was given an Over-Under of 9 wins and the Bears finished 8-8.
The biggest drop-off happened to the 2016 Carolina Panthers. The year before when Cam Newton was the MVP, the Cats finished an NFL-best 15-1 (lost Super Bowl 50 to Denver) with a win total of 8.5. The next season, Newton wasn't nearly as good and the team slipped to 6-10 with a win total of 10.5.
Baltimore opens the 2020 season at home on Sept. 13 (we hope) as an 8.5-point favorite over the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens might be betting favorites in every game.
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