2026 PGA Championship odds, Sunday picks: Proven golf model reveals projected leaderboard, surprising predictions

Golf's second major of the year heads to its conclusion as Round 4 of the 2026 PGA Championship is underway at Aroniminik Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa. 

Alex Smalley, who is alone at 6 under, carried a two-shot lead entering Sunday. He's being chased by a star-studded leaderboard that features Ludvig Aberg (-4), Jon Rahm (-4), Rory McIlroy (-3) and Xander Schauffele (-3) all within three shots. Scottie Scheffler entered the day at 1-over and remains within striking distance. 

Smalley is the +440 favorite in the latest 2026 PGA Championship odds as he seeks his first victory as a professional. Rahm and Aberg are both at +550 and McIlroy is +700. The final group tees off at 2:35 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Before locking in any 2026 PGA Championship picks for Sunday, you NEED to see the golf prediction and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour tournament 10,000 times, and has a lengthy history of being extremely profitable.

This same model has also nailed a WHOPPING 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters, its fifth Masters in a row, as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship! Anyone who has followed it could have seen MASSIVE returns! Join SportsLine now to see the model's shocking 2026 PGA Championship picks from 10,000 simulations!

Now, with the 2026 PGA Championship heading into Sunday, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising.

One major surprise the model is calling for: Smalley, the leader by two strokes, finishes outside the top 5. Another surprise: Scheffler rises up the leaderboard and surges into the top 5 despite being a longer shot at +1600. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday!

The model is also targeting another MASSIVE longshot of around +4000 to surge towards the top of the leaderboard! You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any PGA picks!

So who wins the 2026 PGA Championship, and which GIANT longshot make a serious run at the title on Sunday? ... Join SportsLine right now to see who you can bank on to win, and see which longshots make a run at the title, all from the model that's nailed 17 majors, including five straight Masters and the PGA Championship last year!