2026 Kentucky Derby odds, horses, futures: Uncanny bettor releases picks, best bets

The Kentucky Derby 2026 takes place on Saturday, May 2 from Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET, and Renegade is the 4-1 favorite in the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds that were revealed following the post draw last Saturday. The horse drew the No. 1 post position, which hasn't produced a winner since 1986. Other 2026 Kentucky Derby contenders include Further Ado at 6-1, Commandment at 6-1, Chief Wallabee at 8-1 and The Puma at 10-1. Silent Tactic scratched on Wednesday, bringing Great White (50-1) into the field, and then Fulleffort was scratched on Thursday, bringing Ocelli (50-1) into the field.

With the field taking now in place, and just a few days to go before the race, it's the perfect time to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for the annual Run for the Roses, you NEED to see what our resident horse racing guru, Jody Demling, has to say, given his historical DOMINATION of this race.

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Derby-Oaks double 12 times in the last 17 years! He also nailed the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and nailed a $1,682 superfecta! Anyone who has followed him on those picks could be WAY UP! Join SportsLine here to see his picks for this year!

For the 2026 Kentucky Derby, we can tell you Demling is fading Renegade, even though he's the morning-line favorite In fact, Demling says Renegade barely finishes in the top 10! Another stunner: Demling is high on The Puma, even though he's a longshot at 10-1. "He narrowly lost the Florida Derby to Commandment and has a shot to win the roses." See who he's picking this year!

Demling is also high on a double-digit longshot who "could be a freak." He's including this horse in his 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks before locking in any of your own!

Who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby, and which longshot is a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine RIGHT NOW to get Jody Demling's 2026 Kentucky Derby projected leaderboard, all from the expert who has nailed a COLOSSAL 12 Derby-Oaks doubles! 

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Demling has hit 12 of the last 17 Oaks-Derby doubles and also nailed the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order. and had a $1,682 superfecta win! 

Here are Demling's picks (updated 4/29) in order of projected finish! 

Whew, the Kentucky Derby is a chore to handicap this year.

My Derby pick has been in the top four six years in a row -- and there have been no favorites win the race during that time -- but this time around it's going to be very tough to land on the horse that will wear the roses.

But I've given it my best effort and in such a competitive race I am not going with the favorite.

Before the final round of prep races, I was on Renegade and had him atop my leaderboard. He won the Arkansas Derby in impressive fashion, but I am not in his camp anymore. I didn't think that was a great field at Oaklawn, he didn't arrive at Churchill Downs until one week before the race and then he drew the No. 1 post position. No horses has won from that post position since 1986.

The Wood Memorial wasn't a very good prep race and the California horses were not all that great. So that left me with the Florida Derby and I think it was by far the best prep race and I love the top three horses.

The winner -- Commandment -- is very good and will be coming in the end, while second-place finisher The Puma is solid. Third-place finisher Chief Wallabee will run in blinkers for the first time and I believe that will make the difference.

It's a tough race to predict, but hit it and you will cash.

Good luck! Happy Derby!

Here's my rundown:

WIN:
12 Chief Wallabee (8-1)
An eye-catching winner in his first race in early January, this Bill Mott-trained son of Constitution has since been second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and third in the Florida Derby. He will be running with blinkers for the first time, has looked sensational in preparation for the race and appears to be sitting on a huge effort.

PLACE:
6 Commandment (6-1)
He looked good in his maiden score at Churchill Downs and then won the Mucho Macho Man, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He has a four-race winning streak heading into the Derby for trainer Brad Cox and hasn't done much wrong.

SHOW:
15 Emerging Market (15-1)
He won the Louisiana Derby and will be in the Derby field for trainer Chad Brown. I worry about his lack of experience though. He has only two lifetime starts, and the last Derby winner with only two previous starts was Leonatus in 1883. That's a long time, but Emerging Market looks so good. Could he be a freak?

Projected order of finish for rest of field:

18 Further Ado (6-1)
A son of Gun Runner, Further Ado was the runner-up in the Tampa Bay Derby and then demolished the field in the Blue Grass Stakes. His speed figure was by far the fastest of anyone in the field. Did he beat a bad field? Or has he really improved that much? It's hard to tell. I can't throw him out but won't be playing him to win.

9 The Puma (10-1)
The son of Essential Quality is super intriguing, and at one point earlier in the week I thought he might be my pick. He won the Tampa Bay Derby by beating Further Ado. He narrowly lost the Florida Derby to Commandment and has a shot to win the roses.

20 Fulleffort (20-1)
The Brad Cox-trained winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks will relish the added distance but must overcome the question if he can run on dirt. He reminds me a lot of last year's Jeff Ruby winner, Final Gambit, who finished fourth in the Derby for Cox. The No. 20 post position is not a factor to me; getting a good trip though the traffic is what matters.

7 Danon Bourbon (20-1)
Of the two Japanese horses, Danon Bourbon has more speed than Wonder Dean, which is why I have him ranked higher. This son of Maxfield was bred in Kentucky and is generating a bit of buzz on the backside.

1 Renegade (4-1)
The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Into Mischief doesn't mind the distance and has the fastest final eighth mile on the Derby trail. He was my original pick, but there are just too many things going against him.

8 So Happy (15-1)
The Santa Anita Derby winner is now 3-for-4 lifetime with the one loss a third-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes two races back. I didn't like him at all heading into the Santa Anita Derby, but he was impressive in the win and looks great heading into Saturday.

14 Potente (20-1)
This son of Into Mischief sold for $2.4 million as a yearling. He was impressive in his debut race and won the San Felipe for trainer Bob Baffert before finishing as the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby. He had a blazing fast workout on Sunday, which I don't love so I bumped him down a bit.

21 Great White (50-1)
The biggest horse in the field should be able to get the distance and will be running in the end. Didn't draw into the race until Wednesday and trainer John Ennis is confident he will show improvement.

16 Pavlovian (30-1)
He was a game second in the Louisiana Derby. He will need to really improve but has the most experience of any of the entrants and has finished in the top four in all four of his two-turn races. If he doesn't get burned out by the pace, he could be a factor.

10 Wonder Dean (30-1)
Wonder Dean is a son of Dee Majesty, a classic-caliber horse on turf in Japan. The Japanese-bred colt won the UAE Derby in his last start but is just 2-for-6 lifetime.

4 Litmus Test (50-1)
I don't think the connections were going to run him until he had a stellar work recently at Churchill Downs. He will get caught up early in a speed duel and likely fade.

11 Incredibolt (20-1)
Trainer Riley Mott won the Virginia Derby with this son of Bolt d'Oro and has trained him up to the Derby. He he's been drawing a lot of attention by the railbirds at Churchill Downs, but I'm still not sure I like him to finish anywhere near the money.

19 Golden Tempo (30-1)
He came flying in the Risen Star to finish second and was running at the end of the Louisiana Derby, finishing third. He has been way back in all of his races. I liked him to finish a lot higher until trainer Cherie DeVaux said on Tuesday that he had a cracked heel.

5 Right to Party (30-1)
He came flying late to finish second in the Wood Memorial, but it wasn't a very strong race. He should be one of the longest priced horses in the field but could get bet some by fans of the Beastie Boys.

2 Albus (30-1)
This son of Yaupon won the Wood Memorial, but I'm not giving him much of a chance.

3 Intrepido (50-1)
I would have had the Santa Anita Derby fourth-place finisher ranked in the bottom three even before he turned in the fastest pre-Derby workout in history earlier this week. That too-fast workout must have burned him up.

17 Six Speed (50-1)
I have to believe he will be on the lead early and then fade to the back. 

Wagers

$2 Exacta 12 with ALL ($38)
$1 Exacta 6,15,18 with 1,6,7,8,9,15,18,20 ($21)
$1 Trifecta box 6,12,15,18 ($24)
$1 Superfecta 6,12,15 with 6,12,15 with 6,12,15 with 1,7,8,9,14,16,18,20 ($48)
Total: $131*

*Based on a $131 budget  

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