2025 Women's NCAA Tournament picks: Proven experts reveal predictions for every game
Experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai are up nearly 400 units on their women's college basketball picks since 2021
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The 2025 Women's NCAA Tournament is winding down with only eight teams remaining in the field. The South Carolina Gamecocks are looking to defend their title and will take on the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite Eight on Sunday. Another star-studded showdown is slated for Sunday when the UCLA Bruins battle the LSU Tigers at 3 p.m. ET in Spokane, Washington. The action continues on Monday with Texas vs. TCU (7 p.m.) and UConn vs. USC (9 p.m.).
Before picking any 2025 Women's NCAA Tournament games, be sure to see the picks for every game from women's college basketball experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com, a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks.
Barzilai and Wetzel went 543-383 overall (+122.89 units) during the 2023-24 women's college basketball campaign and posted a 125-71-1 record (+44.33 units) so far in 24-25. Barzilai nailed last year's win by Iowa over UConn and called three Final Four teams! They also finished the 2024 WNBA season with a 202-111-2 mark in 2024. Anyone who has followed them has seen HUGE returns.
Now Barzilai and Wetzel are sharing their 2025 Women's NCAA Tournament picks at SportsLine. You'll be able to see them, round by round, right in this article. Be sure to bookmark this page and keep coming back for more picks!
National championship game
UConn over South Carolina
Two of the deepest teams will square off for the national title in a battle of the premier programs in women's college basketball, with South Carolina looking to repeat and win its third in four years. But Paige Bueckers won't be denied a title in her fifth and final season.
Final Four
South Carolina over Texas
It's rare that we get to see a fourth matchup between two teams in the same season, but that's what we get in this all-SEC semifinal. Despite South Carolina dominating two of the first three matchups, I still see this as a very tight one, but the Gamecocks have enough of a depth edge to give them the nod here.
UConn over UCLA
This is another one that should be tighter than the spread indicates, but the Huskies have the experience and talent to put them over the top. They may be one of the few teams capable of devising and executing a defensive game plan to limit Lauren Betts while not getting completely burned by the shooters around her.
Elite 8
South Carolina over Duke
South Carolina has developed a penchant for winning close games in recent years, going 26-4 in games decided by ten or fewer points since 2021-22. This game is shaping up to be another such game, and the Gamecocks should have the chops to pull it out down the stretch.
UCLA over LSU
For the second straight year, UCLA and LSU will meet up in the NCAA Tournament. With possibly the two most unstoppable posts in the game in Lauren Betts and Aneesah Morrow squaring off, look for UCLA to exact revenge from last year's loss and punch their ticket to Tampa.
Texas over TCU
In an all-Texas battle of former Big 12 rivals, this one will come down to the Longhorns defense. TCU looked great against Notre Dame, but this Texas defense is the toughest test they've faced in this tournament run.
UConn over USC
There's not a lot left to say about how good Paige Bueckers and UConn have been in March. As the competition gets steeper, they just keep running away from teams anyway. Without JuJu Watkins, USC doesn't have enough to keep up.
Sweet 16
UCLA over Ole Miss
Coach Yo's Ole Miss squad has pulled upsets in the tournament before, and they'll never give up without a fight. But this UCLA team is too good, too talented, and too deep to overcome at this stage.
NC State over LSU
This NC State team is a lot better than the one that lost to LSU early in the season, especially since Tilda Trygger has emerged as a key contributor. It's an upset by the betting odds but not by the seed line. The Pack get it done and move within a game of their second consecutive Final Four.
USC over Kansas State
Kansas State will be a popular pick in this game after the devastating injury to USC star JuJu Watkins. But the way USC played in that game after JuJu went down is a reminder of how much other talent they have. Kiki Iriafen is a star, and the loaded freshman class is growing up before our eyes.
UConn over Oklahoma
UConn is on an absolute mission to bring Paige Bueckers a ring in her final year of college. They've looked unstoppable as of late, and the Sooners aren't a team that can stop the unstoppable.
South Carolina over Maryland
South Carolina is known for slow starts, so Maryland may make this one interesting for a quarter or two. But the Gamecocks have owned the Terps in recent years, including their last matchup a season ago in which South Carolina's 114 points were the most Maryland has given up in the Her Hoop Stats era. Maryland is simply overmatched.
Duke over North Carolina
It's hard to top an elite rivalry game with a trip to the Elite Eight at stake, and that's what we get in this one. Each team beat the other once in the regular season, but Duke is peaking at the right time and should come out on top in the rubber match.
Texas over Tennessee
While Tennessee knows how to keep it close against just about anyone, that won't necessarily put them over the top in terms of actually getting a win. They're capable – they took down UConn this year, after all – but more often than not, they come up just short in these matchups. Burnt Orange wins the "orange bowl" in the Sweet 16.
Notre Dame over TCU
Notre Dame has rebounded admirably from their late-season swoon that dropped them from No. 1 team in the country all the way to a No. 3 seed in the tournament. The star-studded back court is firing on all cylinders again, and that's bad news for a TCU team that boasts more scoring talent than defense prowess in the back court.
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UCLA over play-in winner
UCLA is the No. 1 overall seed for a reason. Neither potential opponent has anyone who can matchup with 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts inside, so the Bruins should cruise.
Richmond over Georgia Tech
The Spiders are one of the best shotmaking teams in the country. They lead the nation in effective FG% and 2P% and rank in the top seven in 3-point rate and 3P%. I like them to get by a Georgia Tech squad that's lost five of its last six.
Ole Miss over Ball State
Ball State will need both Ally Becki and Alex Richard to have huge games to pull the upset. Ultimately, Ole Miss' defense should be too tough in this one.
Baylor over Grand Canyon
GCU has the nation's longest winning streak at 31 in a row, including a tough road win at Arizona. But they still haven't been tested enough to hang with the experience of Baylor.
Florida State over George Mason
Despite playing at a breakneck pace, Florida State turns it over at the second lowest rate in the country. Their ball control should help stave off an upset from a George Mason team that ranks in the top ten in turnover margin.
LSU over San Diego State
LSU head coach Kim Mulkey said over the weekend that Flau'jae Johnson and Aneesah Morrow should be good to go for the first round. Even if one or the other were not at 100%, LSU has enough firepower to get past the Aztecs.
Michigan State over Harvard
Harvard's Harmoni Turner may be the best player in this matchup, but Sparty's pressure defense should be too much for the Crimson.
NC State over Vermont
Vermont plays at the slowest pace in the country, which may be enough to hang around for a while. But 40 minutes is still enough for NC State's talent to overwhelm.
USC over UNCG
It's hard enough for a No. 16 to beat a No. 1 under normal circumstances. Make them fly three time zones across the country and it's essentially impossible.
California over Mississippi State
The Golden Bears will have a travel advantage here, but Mississippi State has enough of an edge in both the rebounding and the turnover battles to come out on top in Los Angeles.
Kansas State over Fairfield
With Ayoka Lee expected to return for Kansas State, Fairfield will have their hands full down low. They shoot enough threes to make it close if they get hot, but the Wildcats are second in the country in 3P%, so Fairfield isn't likely to be the hotter shooting team in this matchup.
Kentucky over Liberty
In year one, Kenny Brooks has orchestrated an incredible turnaround for Kentucky, who won just 12 games each of the past two seasons. Georgia Amoore has plenty of tournament experience, and she should have no problem leading her team into round two at home.
Murray State over Iowa
This may be the most entertaining matchup of the entire first round for fans of offense. Murray State leads DI in scoring, and while this isn't the same Iowa offense we saw last year with Caitlin Clark leading the way, the Hawkeyes can still get out and run. The aptly-named Racers are led by fifth-year senior and 3,000-point scorer Katelyn Young, who is good enough to lead them to an upset.
Oklahoma over FGCU
Despite losing head coach Karl Smesko early in the season to the WNBA, March fixture FGCU still ranks near the top of the country in rim-and-threes rate. This year they face an Oklahoma team that also plays an analytics-friendly style of offense, so the edge should go to the talent on the Sooners' side.
Oklahoma State over South Dakota State
The Cowgirls should make it a clean sweep for the Oklahoma schools, as they match up well with the Jackrabbits. South Dakota State's biggest strength is their shotmaking ability, but Oklahoma's biggest strength is forcing tough shots defensively.
UConn over Arkansas State
At this point, there's not much rationale needed for picking UConn women's basketball in the first round. It's been 32 years since the Huskies lost in the first round, and that streak isn't ending in 2025.
South Carolina over Tennessee Tech
The Gamecocks don't have as long of a history of success as UConn does, but in recent years they've played themselves onto that same tier of inevitability. No need to overthink this one either, take Dawn Staley's group to advance.
Utah over Indiana
Like FGCU, Utah has maintained a strong level of play after losing its coach to the WNBA. This should be one of the closest games of the opening round, as both teams boast tons of experience and shooting. I have Utah rated higher on a neutral court by a hair, so I'll give the 51/49 edge to the Utes.
Alabama over Green Bay
Knowing if they can make it out of the first weekend they'll be able to play in Birmingham may be just the motivation the Crimson Tide need to bring their A game in the first two rounds. Green Bay isn't an easy out as a No. 12 seed, but Alabama is a tough No. 5 seed as well.
Maryland over Norfolk State
Diamond Johnson is a power conference talent, having played in both the Big Ten and the ACC before transferring to Norfolk State. But the Terps are loaded with talent, and their offensive firepower is enough to carry them in this one.
West Virginia over play-in winner
"Press Virginia" is a top ten team in the country by some metrics, and is criminally underseeded as a six seed. Either Columbia or Washington will have a difficult time facing the Mountaineers swarming defense on a quick turnaround after the First Four.
North Carolina over Oregon State
The Beavers lost almost everybody to the portal after the Pac-12 disbanded, but they rode a magical run in the WCC tournament – including two buzzer-beating game winners – to get back to March Madness anyway. The magic should run out here, however, as the Tar Heels' defense is too suffocating.
Vanderbilt over Oregon
The Commodores boast one of the best inside-outside duos in the country in Khamil Pierre and Mikayla Blakes. Oregon's defense is solid, but they will have trouble scoring enough to keep up with Vanderbilt's pair of scoring threats.
Duke over Lehigh
Seeing a No. 2 Duke vs No. 15 Lehigh matchup surely gives Blue Devils basketball fans nightmares of CJ McCollum. Good news, Dukies – this year's women's matchup should be a safer win for your squad.
Texas over play-in winner
Texas' old school style isn't ideal in certain situations, and it may come back to bite them later in the tournament. But what it is perfectly suited for is beating up on lesser competition, so the Longhorns should be among the most upset-proof teams in the country.
Creighton over Illinois
That Illinois is in this position after losing star Makira Cook for the season is a testament to Shauna Green's coaching and the depth of this team. But they run into another outstanding coach in Jim Flannery in the first round, and the Bluejays' combination of tournament experience and shooting makes them a dangerous team in March.
Tennessee over South Florida
Kim Caldwell has reignited Tennessee by bringing her uptempo chaotic style of play to the Vols this season. It's quite the contrast with South Florida's traditionally deliberate style. Tennessee occasionally beats themselves, but as long as they stay disciplined they should advance.
Ohio State over Montana State
Ohio State is known for its press, but Montana State is one of the few teams in the country that presses more often than the Buckeyes. That press might give some higher seeds trouble, but an Ohio State team that faces it every day in practice should be able to decipher it well enough to come out on top.
Iowa State/Princeton over Michigan
On both the men's and the women's sides, it's not uncommon to see a First Four winner pull a first round upset. Iowa State has a better chance to do it here, but Princeton has the chops as well if they move on to face Michigan.
Notre Dame over Stephen F Austin
Notre Dame fell from the No. 1 overall ranking to a No. 3 seed in just a few weeks, but despite their recent swoon they still have arguably the most talented backcourt in the country in potential 2025 WNBA lottery picks Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron and likely 2027 lottery pick Hannah Hidalgo. That trio should give SFA fits in what will be a track meet of a basketball game.
Nebraska over Louisville
Huskers Freshman Britt Prince has admirably taken over point guard duties for the graduated Jaz Shelley this season, and she and dominant post presence Alexis Markowski form a formidable one-two punch. Jeff Walz has a Final Four pedigree, but this year's Louisville team isn't as talented as many he's had in the past.
TCU over FDU
Few teams in the country can carve up defenses on the pick-and-roll the way the Horned Frogs can, with Hailey Van Lith handling, Sedona Prince rolling, and sharpshooter Madison Conner stretching the help on the wing. That trio has led the program to their best season in years, and FDU will have no answer for it.
Second Round picks (added 3/23):
Duke over Oregon
Duke may be a little overlooked due to their style, which is far from flashy. But the Blue Devils' defense always gets the job done, and the Ducks don't have the firepower to overcome it on the road.
Notre Dame over Michigan
Olivia Miles may not be 100%, but there is too much talent on Notre Dame for a freshmen-led Michigan squad. The Irish might not pull away for a while, but they should prevail in the end.
Kansas State over Kentucky
Expect Kentucky to be the first host school to go down, as Kansas State is the toughest No. 5 seed in the field. Ayoka Lee looked relatively healthy in the first round, and her presence will be figuratively and literally huge against Kentucky's frontcourt.
South Carolina over Indiana
Last year, Indiana pushed South Carolina in the Sweet 16 and ended up coming closer than all but one team to beating them during the Gamecocks' undefeated season. This season, however, the Hoosiers look a little different, and they don't have the pieces to keep it that close.
Baylor over Ole Miss
Home court should be the difference in this one, as these teams are extremely evenly matched on paper. This one should come down to the wire, so expect the crowd and Baylor's all-upperclassmen starting lineup to push them over the top.
TCU over Louisville
The world finally got the Hailey Van Lith/Louisville matchup it wanted, and HVL has the advantage. The Cardinals are below average at defending ball screens, which is a recipe for disaster against an elite pick-and-roll team in the Horned Frogs.
Tennessee over Ohio State
Tennessee's high octane hockey-sub-style of play will be an interesting matchup for the Buckeye press in this one. This is one of those games that could turn into a 20-point rout either way with the high variance play, but in theory it should be a close one. I like Tennessee to eke out a road victory.
UCLA over Richmond
Richmond proved in round one that they're not just happy to be here with an emphatic win over Georgia Tech. Lauren Betts and UCLA will be a whole different beast, however, and the Spider magic will run out here.
UConn over South Dakota State
As good as the Jackrabbits looked in their round one win, UConn looked even better in hitting the century mark against Arkansas State. The Huskies are rolling, and should continue rolling into the Sweet 16.
Oklahoma over Iowa
Even for an underrated Iowa defense that held the nation's highest scoring team in check in round one, the Sooner offense is going to be too much to handle.
NC State over Michigan State
In terms of value, Michigan State may be a good betting play depending on how big the spread is, and they certainly are worth a shot as an against-the-grain upset pick. But NC State is the better team straight up and has home court, so they have to be the pick in a vacuum.
Alabama over Maryland
This one is about as tight as it gets when it comes to the data, so I'm throwing the numbers out the window and going with the team I trust more on the court. Alabama has gone under the radar all year, but the Crimson Tide are a second-weekend caliber team, and they'll get a chance to prove it against the Terps.
West Virginia over North Carolina
Only eight teams in the country have faced a press less often than North Carolina has this season. That does not speak well for how prepared the Heels will be to face Press Virginia on a short turnaround.
Texas over Illinois
Illinois got its first tournament win in a quarter century in the first round against Creighton. The second one will almost certainly have to wait.
LSU over Florida State
Scoring talent abounds in this matchup between the only two teammate trios in the country all averaging 16+ points per game. Aneesah Morrow's rebounding will be the X-factor in getting LSU past the 'Noles.
USC over Mississippi State
JuJu Watkins tweaked her ankle in round one, but she appeared to be okay. Assuming she's good to go, she'll be a good bet to lead USC to the second weekend.
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