Saturday is 2025 Tampa Bay Derby day, the signature day of the year at Tampa Bay Downs. Seven 3-year-olds have been entered for the Tampa Bay Derby 2025, a key race on the road to the Kentucky Derby. The Chad Brown-trained Chancer McPatrick, a two-time Grade 1 winner, is the 8-5 favorite in the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby odds and will make his first start since a sixth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Patch Adams (2-1), Hill Road (4-1) and Owen Almighty (5-1) round out the four top choices among the seven 2025 Tampa Bay Derby horses. Post time is 5:34 p.m. ET. The latest 2025 Tampa Bay Derby forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies.
With talented but inexperienced 3-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez, who crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday, has to say before making any Tampa Bay Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 score. And he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes in February for a $422.50 payday. Anyone who followed his lead could have been way up.
For Saturday, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby field, made his picks and constructed his tickets.
We can tell you that Menez is completely fading Chancer McPatrick, even though he's the 8-5 favorite. "Chancer McPatrick got a late start to his 2025 campaign because of an injury, and trainer Chad Brown told the Daily Racing Form that he thinks the horse is just '80 percent ready' for the Tampa Bay Derby," Menez told SportsLine. Menez isn't using Chancer McPatrick in any of his wagers.
Instead, Menez's top pick is a horse who is "drawn perfectly." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who hasn't raced since 2024, but "has been training steadily for his return." Menez is including these horses in his 2025 Tampa Bay Derby bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see which horses they are before making any 2025 Tampa Bay Derby picks of your own.
So which horse wins the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine now to get the top 2025 Tampa Bay Derby picks and bets, all from the expert who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby and crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday!
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