After going 31 races without a win, Denny Hamlin has won two races in a row, and he'll set his sights on extending his winning streak to three on Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway in the 2025 Food City 500. Hamlin is among the favorites this week, according to the latest NASCAR at Bristol odds, after winning two of the last three races at the most iconic short track on the NASCAR schedule. Kyle Larson is the +270 favorite, followed by Hamlin (+460), William Byron (+950) and Chase Elliott (+950) on the 2025 Food City 500 odds board.
The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. Alex Bowman won the pole position for Sunday's race, his second consecutive pole at Bristol. Before making any 2025 NASCAR at Bristol predictions, you NEED to see the latest 2025 Food City 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Our proven projection model has simulated the 2025 Food City 500 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard. Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model takes into account a slew of factors, including track history and recent results.
McClure's model began the 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott's win in the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray for a +300 payout. Then at Daytona, it was also high on William Byron despite +2000 odds and it went on to predict Kyle Larson as a +350 winner in Miami. The model also called its first victory of the 2024 season with Larson winning in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout then predicted Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.
It impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021 too. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021 and has hit two winners already in 2025! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks could have seen HUGE returns.
Now, the model has dialed in on NASCAR at Bristol 2025 and released its projections.
For the 2025 Food City 500, we can tell you the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he's a longshot at +2800 in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Bristol odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big time and fails to crack the top five! There are far better values in the 2025 NASCAR Bristol starting lineup.
The model is also targeting THREE OTHER drivers with odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.
So who wins the 2025 Food City 500, and which EPIC longshots are MUST-BACKS? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 20 winners!
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