2024 NCAA Tournament futures picks: Best bets and longshots to make the Final Four from legendary Vegas expert
Like usual, the pundit class stayed course on Sunday night when discussing Selection Sunday dynamics and the Big Dance -- especially their picks for the Final Four. As usual, almost to a man (or woman), the top seeds garnered almost unanimous support to make it to Phoenix in three weeks. For good reason, perhaps, in regard to overall top seed and defending champ UConn, a prohibitive favorite in its East Regional in which the Huskies won't have to get on an airplane to travel either to the sub-regionals in Brooklyn, or the next weekend in Boston.
Near unanimous support, however, for fellow 1-liners Purdue and Houston, in particular, and North Carolina (and, to a degree, West 2-seed Arizona)? Especially after a season full of upsets, and a slew of surprises in conference tournaments where none of the top seeds (save UConn) prevailed in the power leagues, and ditto for many of the mid-and-low majors? For the current campaign, at least, sticking to the "top seed" narrative seems almost folly.
It's never been easy to forecast eventual winners in March, at least since the heyday of UCLA in the late '60s and early 70s. Still, there is a sort of randomness that has infiltrated the sport, for varieties of reasons. Which include straight tactics, and a switch from previous generations when fundamental analysis of games could more readily focus upon specific matchups. The introduction, and adoption, of hoops analytics, however, especially the emphasis on 3-balls, has altered not only in-game strategies, but also longtime handicapping dictums. Nowadays, so many teams rely on 3-pointers that success and accuracy from beyond the arc has become the determining factor in many results, and, correspondingly, an important forecasting component. Except that 3- pointers tend to be so random; by us, we like to identify sides that might not have to live-and-die so much with triples, though acknowledging one hot (or cold) shooting night from deep can sway almost any outcome.
With that in mind, we offer some value bets to consider, focusing on an entry or two in each region outside of the top seeds that might offer the best values to get to Phoenix. The TV pundits have already given you top seeds UConn, Purdue, Houston, and North Carolina to make the Final Four; by us, that's no fun. Not to mention that this season, in particular, maybe surprises shouldn't be considered surprises. Odds to reach the Final Four are listed alongside the teams mentioned below.Â
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