2023 NFL futures, odds: MVP best bets, longshots worth a look and favorites we're fading
We continue previewing the 2023 NFL season by breaking down the MVP odds and giving out our picks
loading...
loading...
After diving into the odds and betting strategy for Super Bowl LVIII, winners of each division and teams to make or miss the playoffs, we're going to turn our attention to individual player honors, starting with the MVP award. In 2018, I pegged Patrick Mahomes as a great option to win the award at +5500 odds during the preseason despite him having just one start during his rookie season. He went on to throw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns to walk away with MVP honors by a 41-9 margin.
The following year, Lamar Jackson was +10000 to win MVP early in the process, then dropped significantly as bettors identified him as another second-year player capable of making a leap in a good system. He went on to win in unanimous fashion. Over the last three years, we haven't seen a repeat of a young player making the leap to take the award out of seemingly nowhere, with Aaron Rodgers winning twice before Mahomes captured his second MVP last year.
Coming out of the 2022 NFL Draft, any expectation a second-year QB would rediscover that Mahomes/Jackson MVP magic in 2023 seemed laughable. But that was before Brock Purdy won seven straight starts (including playoffs) while lifting the ceiling of the San Francisco offense, then suffered a torn UCL in his throwing elbow during the first quarter of the NFC Championship. Purdy is +4500 to win MVP, but is that a bet worth making?
I'll break down the MVP field below and identify who I think makes the most sense to back, including some longshots I think could be worth small-sized plays and the favorites I want no part of. But first, let's look at the full list of 2023 NFL MVP odds
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds | Player | Odds | ||
| Patrick Mahomes | +650 | Andy Dalton | +20000 | Jamaal Williams | +50000 | ||
| Joe Burrow | +750 | Travis Kelce | +20000 | Khalil Mack | +50000 | ||
| Josh Allen | +750 | Micah Parsons | +20000 | D'Andre Swift | +50000 | ||
| Jalen Hurts | +1200 | CeeDee Lamb | +20000 | Darius Leonard | +50000 | ||
| Justin Herbert | +1500 | Nick Bosa | +20000 | Michael Thomas | +50000 | ||
| Trevor Lawrence | +1600 | Deebo Samuel | +20000 | Marquise Brown | +50000 | ||
| Lamar Jackson | +1600 | Stefon Diggs | +20000 | Jeffery Simmons | +50000 | ||
| Aaron Rodgers | +1800 | Zach Wilson | +20000 | Jaylen Waddle | +50000 | ||
| Tua Tagovailoa | +2200 | Bailey Zappe | +20000 | Aaron Jones | +50000 | ||
| Justin Fields | +2500 | Saquon Barkley | +20000 | Isiah Pacheco | +50000 | ||
| Dak Prescott | +2500 | Davis Mills | +20000 | Kadarius Toney | +50000 | ||
| Geno Smith | +3500 | AJ Brown | +20000 | Joe Mixon | +50000 | ||
| Derek Carr | +4000 | TJ Watt | +20000 | Mike Evans | +50000 | ||
| Jared Goff | +4000 | Mike White | +20000 | Nick Bolton | +50000 | ||
| Deshaun Watson | +4000 | Bradley Chubb | +30000 | Tyler Allgeier | +50000 | ||
| Trey Lance | +4000 | Deandre Hopkins | +30000 | Brian Robinson Jr. | +50000 | ||
| Russell Wilson | +4500 | Myles Garrett | +30000 | Ezekiel Elliott | +50000 | ||
| Brock Purdy | +4500 | Austin Ekeler | +30000 | Matthew Judon | +50000 | ||
| Daniel Jones | +5000 | Alvin Kamara | +30000 | JK Dobbins | +50000 | ||
| Kyler Murray | +5000 | Chris Jones | +30000 | Kenneth Walker III | +50000 | ||
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 | Josh Jacobs | +30000 | Tyler Lockett | +50000 | ||
| Jordan Love | +5000 | Nick Chubb | +30000 | Chris Godwin | +50000 | ||
| Matthew Stafford | +5000 | Maxx Crosby | +30000 | Dameon Pierce | +50000 | ||
| Kenny Pickett | +6000 | Keenan Allen | +30000 | Jerry Jeudy | +50000 | ||
| Matt Ryan | +8000 | George Kittle | +30000 | Kyle Pitts | +50000 | ||
| Mac Jones | +8000 | DeVonta Smith | +30000 | Miles Sanders | +50000 | ||
| Cooper Kupp | +10000 | Joey Bosa | +30000 | Travis Etienne Jr. | +50000 | ||
| Christian McCaffrey | +10000 | Chase Young | +30000 | Drake London | +75000 | ||
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +10000 | Aaron Donald | +30000 | Jarvis Landry | +100000 | ||
| Baker Mayfield | +10000 | Haason Reddick | +30000 | DK Metcalf | +100000 | ||
| Justin Jefferson | +10000 | Sauce Gardner | +30000 | James Robinson | +100000 | ||
| Sam Darnold | +10000 | Christian Kirk | +30000 | T.J. Hockenson | +100000 | ||
| Ryan Tannehill | +12500 | Breece Hall | +30000 | Cam Akers | +100000 | ||
| Sam Howell | +12500 | Dalvin Cook | +30000 | Diontae Johnson | +100000 | ||
| Derrick Henry | +12500 | Garrett Wilson | +30000 | David Montgomery | +100000 | ||
| C.J. Stroud | +15000 | Tony Pollard | +40000 | Antonio Gibson | +100000 | ||
| Davante Adams | +15000 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | +40000 | Leonard Fournette | +100000 | ||
| Jonathan Taylor | +15000 | Calvin Ridley | +50000 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +100000 | ||
| Bryce Young | +15000 | Rhamondre Stevenson | +50000 | Darren Waller | +100000 | ||
| Malik Willis | +15000 | Michael Pittman Jr | +50000 | Zay Jones | +100000 | ||
| Blaine Gabbert | +15000 | Juju Smith-Schuster | +50000 | Elijah Mitchell | +100000 | ||
| Desmond Ridder | +15000 | Terry McLaurin | +50000 | Kenny Golladay | +100000 | ||
| Jameis Winston | +15000 | Chris Olave | +50000 | Melvin Gordon | +100000 | ||
| JaMarr Chase | +15000 | Najee Harris | +50000 | Courtland Sutton | +100000 | ||
| Tyreek Hill | +15000 |
Which favorites are worth playing to win MVP, and which should be faded? And which longshots make for the best value plays to take home the award? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL MVP futures betting strategy from SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert!
GET VEGAS EXPERT PICKS FOR NFL, MLB, NBA, CBB, GOLF, NHL, HORSE RACING AND MORE - PLUS ADVANCED COMPUTER SIMULATIONS, WINNING TOOLS, AND MORE!
