The Colorado Avalanche look to win their first championship since 2001 when they host the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday in Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. Colorado erased a pair of deficits on Wednesday before Nazem Kadri, who hadn't played since Game 3 of the Western Conference final against Edmonton due to a hand injury that required surgery, scored at 12:02 of overtime to give the Avalanche a 3-1 series lead. The Lightning are attempting to become the first team to win three consecutive Cups since the New York Islanders captured four straight from 1980-83.

Puck drop at Ball Arena in Denver is set for 8 p.m. ET. Colorado is a -190 favorite (risk $190 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over/under for total goals scored is set at six (see the latest lines for every game on our NHL odds page).

Before making any Lightning vs. Avalanche picks, you NEED to see the latest NHL predictions from the SportsLine hockey insider Matt Severance.

Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He's SportsLine's top NHL handicapper, going 137-72-4 in his last 213 NHL picks and returning almost $3,000 for $100 players. Anyone who has followed him is WAY UP.

Severance knows history strongly favors Colorado as teams with 3-1 leads in the Stanley Cup Playoffs have won 298 of the 329 series, including 35 of 36 Finals. Norris Trophy winner Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen both picked up another assist in Game 4 to increase their totals to a franchise-record 20 this postseason, with the latter notching his eighth of the series to tie Wayne Gretzky for most through the first four games of a Stanley Cup Final. Meanwhile, Darcy Kuemper bounced back from a dismal performance in Game 3 (five goals allowed on 22 shots) by making 37 saves and assisting on Kadri's game-winning goal.

The expert also knows Tampa Bay already has come through when its back was against the wall this postseason, knocking off Toronto in the first round after trailing 3-2 in the series. Norris Trophy finalist Victor Hedman was one of the best players on the ice for either team in Game 4 and atoned for his interference penalty in the second period that led to Colorado's first goal of the night by restoring the Lightning's lead with his third tally of the postseason on an impressive rush from his own end. Tampa Bay still has reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has allowed only five goals against Colorado's dynamic offense over the last two games after yielding 11 in the first two.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Avalanche vs. Lightning, and we can tell you he's leaning Over on the total. He's also found a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the money line! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NHL picks of your own.

So who wins Avalanche vs. Lightning in Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Lightning vs. Avalanche money line you should be all over on Friday, all from the expert who has crushed his NHL picks!