2022 NCAA Tournament: 5 vs 12 brings high drama to almost every March Madness

A strong college basketball season means a berth in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, but for those teams that earn No. 5 seeds in the 2022 March Madness bracket, don't be surprised if there is plenty of apprehension with their first-round opponents.

That's because the NCAA Tournament has witnessed 51 upsets by No. 12 seeds over No. 5 seeds since the field expanded in 1985, meaning the lower seed is 51-93, a 35.4 winning percentage.

By comparison, 29 No. 13 seeds have upset No. 4 seeds since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded in 1985, giving 13 seeds a 29-111 record all-time. That equates to a 20.71 winning percentage.

The 5-12 curse delivered in the first possible NCAA Tournament, as 12th-seeded Kentucky knocked off fifth-seeded Washington, 66-58, in 1985. The most recent NCAA Tournament, featured No. 12 Oregon State upsetting No. 5 Tennessee. In the 2019 NCAA Tournament, there were a whopping three No. 12 seeds that defeated the No. 5 seed.

What's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket? Which No. 5 seed makes a stunning run to the Elite Eight? See which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's called 17 upsets by double-digit seeds and beat over 92% of brackets two of the last three tournaments.

In the 36 NCAA Tournaments that 5-12 matchups existed, only five of them -- 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018 -- did not witness at least one No. 12 winning in the first round. A 5-12 game has been won by the 12-seed in overtime five times (most recently Stephen F. Austin over VCU in 2014), and twice has a 5-12 matchup has been won by the 12-seed in double-OT (Creighton over Florida in 2002, Little Rock over Purdue in 2016).

SportsLine's model will simulate the 2022 NCAA bracket 10,000 times and you'll want to see what it says before you make any picks. It absolutely crushed its March Madness picks last tournament, beating over 92 percent of all CBS Sports brackets for the second time in three years. The model also nailed a whopping three teams in the Final Four last year. It knows how to spot an upset as well. 

The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 17 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. It also nailed some massive upsets last tournament, including predicting the championship game between Gonzaga and Baylor, and hit Houston's Midwest Region win even though the Cougars weren't the No. 1 seed! Join SportsLine now to get winning college basketball picks and dominate your pool.

In NCAA Tournament history, the lower seed is 20-29 in games decided by four points or fewer in 5 vs. 12 matchups.

The largest margin of victory for a 12 seed came in 1991, when Eastern Michigan thumped Mississippi State, 76-56. The 5-12 game was decided by a single point five times, first by Ball State over Oregon State, 54-53 in 1990, and most recently in 2021 when Creighton beat UC Santa Barbara 63-62.

The only buzzer-beater in a 5-12? Western Kentucky over Drake in overtime in 2008.

Although more than 50 percent of the No. 12 seeds that won in the first round fail to advance past the second round, 22 of the 51 teams have made it to the Sweet 16. Oregon State advanced all the way to the Elite Eight last season, upsetting Oklahoma State and Loyola-Chicago after the Tennessee win before getting ousted by Houston in the South Region final.

Of the 22 No. 12 seeds to reach the Sweet 16, only the 2002 Missouri Tigers and 2021 Oregon State Beavers actually won that Sweet 16 contest to advance to the Elite Eight. Check out a full list of 5-12 upsets below.

Now, get every pick, every upset, and see the optimal bracket, all from the model that nailed 15 of the 26 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds the last four tournaments! Join SportsLine now to get winning college basketball picks and dominate your pool.