2021 Saratoga Derby morning-line odds, picks: Racing insider offers bet strategy for Saturday's race

The Aidan O'Brien-trained Bolshoi Ballet will try to capture the second leg of the Turf Triple Series when he leaves the starting gate in the 2021 Saratoga Derby on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. The Irish bred son of Galileo, who won the first leg of the series, is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the Saratoga Derby odds. Post time for the $1 million race is 5:10 p.m. ET. (Check out SportsLine's extensive horse racing coverage.)

Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has studied the race and formulated trifecta and superfecta wagers in his analysis below. A two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas, Weir has produced multiple five-figure days at the track. Earlier this year he hit the exacta in the Tampa Bay Derby for $1,414, and on July 18 he hit the late Pick 4 at Del Mar for $594.60. Those are just some of his scores in 2021.

Saturday's race features a Europe vs. United States storyline. Bolshoi Ballet's first six races came in Europe before he shipped over the Atlantic last month to win the first leg of the Turf Triple Series, the Belmont Derby. Other top European contenders include Cadillac (4-1) and Secret Protector (6-1).

Meanwhile the top American on the morning line is Du Jour (8-1). Formerly trained by Bob Baffert, Du Jour was transferred to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott after Baffert was suspended by the New York Racing Association. Baffert has since had that suspension overturned, but Du Jour remains with Mott.

Weir has handicapped the Saratoga Derby field, made his picks and constructed his bets. 

One shocker: Weir's top pick is not Bolshoi Ballet, even though he is the 2-1 morning-line favorite. "The Belmont [Derby] was not visually appealing as he was seemingly all in on the turn, but he did finally respond," Weir tells SportsLine. Weir likes two horses better than Bolshoi Ballet. 

Weir's top pick is a horse who is "stepping up." He also is high on a double-digit long shot who "has run competitively" and could surprise. Weir is including these horses in his 2021 Saratoga Derby bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY need to see his picks before locking in any of your own!

Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer's landmark handicapping book "Picking Winners" in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer's figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day.

Weir's methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas!

Last year, his first for SportsLine, Weir was on fire. In June, Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. He crushed the exacta and trifecta in the Forego Stakes in August for $1,134.50. He hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, June 19, June 25, July 2 and July 5, with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50.

This year, he has hit the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Peter Pan Stakes, the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes and the superfecta in the Belmont Stakes, with the Tampa Bay Derby score returning $1,414! Those are just some of his scores in 2021.

Who wins the 2021 Saratoga Derby? What double-digit long shot is a must-back? And how has Weir constructed his wagers?... Join SportsLine right now to get the top 2021 Saratoga Derby picks and bets, all from the racing insider who has been on fire!