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2021 Jockey Club Derby morning-line odds, picks: National handicapping champion offers picks for Saturday's $1 million race

Jonathon Kinchen, who won $366,000 at last year's Breeders' Cup and $150,000 on Kentucky Derby Day in 2015, offers his handicapping analysis and picks for the Jockey Club Derby on Saturday at Belmont Park
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The Charles Appleby-trained Yibir makes his U.S. debut on Saturday when he leaves the starting gate in the 2021 Jockey Club Derby at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y. Yibir has been installed as the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the Jockey Club Derby odds. Post time is 5:45 p.m. ET. (Check out SportsLine's extensive horse racing coverage.)

Handicapping champion Jonathon Kinchen has studied the race and constructed his wagers in his analysis below. An analyst for Fox Sports' Saratoga Live and co-host of the In the Money Players' Podcast, Kinchen won the National Horseplayers Championship Tour in 2015, a demanding, yearlong series of handicapping events across the country. In November, he finished second out of 418 contestants in the prestigious Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, which earned him $215,000 in prize money. After factoring in his profit during the 14 Breeders' Cup races, he took home more than $366,000 on the day.

This year's Jockey Club Derby features four horses who were bred in Europe and four who were bred in the United States. The top four choices were all bred across the Atlantic, led by morning line-favorite Yibir. The son of Dubawi has four wins, one second and two thirds in 10 career starts.

He is expected to face a stiff challenge from Bolshoi Ballet, who won his only start on the Belmont turf course. In July, this son of Galileo won the Belmont Derby despite being blocked for much of the stretch. In his last race he finished fourth in the Saratoga Derby but was the victim of a hotter-than-expected pace. 

Kinchen has handicapped the 2021 Jockey Club Derby field, made his picks and constructed his bets.

One surprise; Kinchen is completely tossing Soldier Rising, the co-second choice on the morning line, at 5-2. Kinchen does not have Soldier Rising on any wagers.

Instead, Kinchen's top pick is a horse who "may not earn the respect of the bettors." Kinchen also is high on a long shot who "will benefit from the wider turns at Belmont." You NEED to see Kinchen's analysis before making any Jockey Club Derby picks of your own.

Kinchen is one of the nation's most successful and recognizable horseplayers. An analyst for Fox Sports' America's Day at the Races and co-host of the In the Money Players' Podcast, Kinchen won the National Horseplayers Championship Tour in 2015, a demanding, yearlong series of handicapping events across the country. That same year, he became the only player in history to have both of his entries qualify for the final table of the National Horseplayers Championship.

In addition, Kinchen has scored huge on some of racing's biggest days. In November, he finished second out of 418 contestants in the prestigious Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, which earned him $215,000 in prize money. After factoring in his profit during the 14 Breeders' Cup races, he took home more than $366,000 on the day.

It's no fluke, either. At the 2015 Kentucky Derby, he cashed for $150,000 after nailing the Pick 6 and a Pick 3 that paid $50,000.

So who wins the 2021 Jockey Club Derby? What long shot is a must-back? And how has Kinchen constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine now to get 2021 Jockey Club Derby picks and bets, all from an unmatched handicapping champion who won $366,000 in the 2020 Breeders' Cup and $150,000 on Derby Day in 2015!

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SportsLine Staff