Today's picks: Why to take the over on Mets-Braves, plus more MLB and NHL picks for Monday

The Coach is joined by featured sports betting expert Mike McClure on an "Air Density Monday"  episode of the Early Edge podcast, powered by SportsLine. Get your top plays for MLB and the NHL for Monday, May 17

The Coach opens by telling us about upcoming special shows this week for golf and MMA.  Mike then issues his comprehensive weather reports for games in Atlanta, Texas, Minnesota, Chicago (National League) and Los Angeles. 

The Coach delivers a quartet of SportsLine Plays of the Day, leading with the NHL pick of the Capitals +115 over the Bruins in Game 2 of their series at 7:30 p.m. ET, endorsing Washington as a great value play. He also spotlights MLB picks from Justin Perri. He is on the Giants +125 over the Reds, at 6:40 p.m. ET. San Francisco has the advantage in every metric. Perri is taking the Yankees and Rangers to go over eight runs at 8:05 p.m. ET, even with Gerrit Cole on the hill. The White Sox are also recommended at -1.5 over the Twins at 7:40 p.m. ET, as J.A, Happ will be hit hard again. 

Mike then shares two of his prime plays, as he is all in on the Mets and Braves over eight runs at 7:10 p.m. ET. "We have Taijuan Walker and Max Fried on the mound. I like this one quite a bit. The air density is low at 61," he says. "Ronald Acuna is going to be back in the lineup and that is evident by what we are seeing in the betting market so far. Max Fried has a has a .398 wOBA, and his expected numbers are a bit better, but he is still awful against right-handed hitters." Mike provides a detailed breakdown of the advanced numbers for Fried's outlook, then drops a major statement on the Mets starter with deep stats to back it up. "Taijuan Walker is my favorite regression candidate in all of Major League Baseball." Mike also is taking the White Sox -1.5 over the Twins, as both starting pitchers in that game are also significant regression candidates. 

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