Iowa has won the last three meetings against Nebraska, but has been on a two-game losing streak and has failed to cover its last three. Nebraska has three losses this season, all to the three best teams in the Big Ten: Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan. Iowa is 8th in the conference with eight wins so far, but those wins have come against second-tier Big Ten teams. Nebraska has proved that it is worthy of being a first-class tiered Big Ten squad. Their defense only allows 39.8% shooting, and offensively, they are fourth nationally in assists-to-turnover ratio (1.95). Total team effort. Nebraska averages 79.4 points and is 6-1 on the road. Iowa is outclassed in this game. Nebraska wins.
Houston (23-2) rides in on a six-game winning streak. The Cougars are visiting Ames, Iowa, where they will be underdogs for the first time this season against Iowa State (22-3). Houston has returned to its traditional format of controlling games with defense, staying Under the total in its last five games. Houston is now No. 2 nationally, allowing 61.3 points a game. Iowa State averages 84.2 points and shoots 50.6 percent from the field, and the Cyclones come off a beatdown of Kansas after losing at TCU. Iowa State has stayed Under the total in its last three games. This total is only 134.5, which is built on both teams' defensive trends. While the Cyclones are 14-0 at home, I bet on the Houston defense.
Purdue got right after experiencing a lull in the season with an 80-77 win at Nebraska Tuesday night. They only had 11 turnovers in the game, which was their biggest problem, and they won the rebounding battle 52-33. That pretty much made up for the fact that Fletcher Loyer shot 5 of 20 from the field and Braden Smith shot 5 of 15. Purdue only shot 37% from the field, and they won against a ranked team on the road. I think they roll in with a renewed confidence over Iowa, whom they beat the last five meetings.
Colgate has beaten Navy 13 straight games in Patriot League play, but this time, Navy's in first place at 12-1 in the conference with an eight-game winning streak, covering the last seven games to pile up 15 covers for the season. They're playing great defense, allowing 40.3% shooting while being 8th in the nation, allowing 28.6% shooting from 3-point range. They only allow 63.5 points a game, which ranks third nationally. I think this is the perfect time for Navy to exercise revenge for the first time since 2019 against Colgate.
St. Louis has a 17-game winning streak and sits 23-1 on the season, producing some of the best metrics in college basketball. They are No. 1 in field goal percentage allowed at 36.4%, No. 3 in shooting 52% from the field, and No. 3 in 3-point shooting at 40.8%. They average 91 points a game, which ranks eighth, and Loyola-Chicago (6-19) allows 77.6 points a game. I look for lots of points to be scored in this game as St. Louis shows off their skills. They're motivated by those impressive numbers.
ACC matchup here with California (17-7) traveling across the country to Syracuse (13-11), and that's why Syracuse is the favorite. The home field advantage, coupled with the strain of a West Coast team traveling East. But Cal is better. I made the game Syracuse -1, and I'm looking at 6.5 out there. Syracuse has lost six of its last seven games but has covered their last three, the last two in losses where they were getting double-digits. Cal has won four of their last six games, and on their last road trip they won at Miami while getting 11.5 points. Cal shoots 37.3% from three point range, which ranks 35th nationally. Cal gets the win.
Purdue has beaten Nebraska in five of the last six meetings, with the one Nebraska win coming the last time they played in Lincoln. Purdue has won the last two games after losing three straight, but has not covered in eight of their last nine games. In their last game, they were an 18-point favorite at home against Oregon and couldn't put them away until a minute left in the game. Star Braden Smith had 6 of the 14 turnovers in that game. That's the bottom of the basement, Oregon, which is 1-12 in the Big Ten. Now they go to Nebraska, which started the season 20-0 before losing their first game at Michigan, and then to Illinois. The Boilermakers aren’t hitting on all cylinders.
ACC matchup here with Virginia, who only have 3 losses on the season, visiting Florida State, who is 11-12. I made the game 4.5, and anything over 8 is a play with Florida State, who's making a little mini-run in the conference with three straight wins and covering five of their last six. They're 9-4 at home. Virginia has won four straight, but they were all against teams that were getting 10-points or more, and the Cavaliers haven't covered four of their last five. Florida State to cover.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference action with Delaware State at 6-16 visiting North Carolina Central, who is second in the conference (4-2) at 8-11. The reason I'm playing this is simply that I have the wrong side favored. I've got Delaware State at -1, and they're getting up to +8.5 at North Carolina Central. Delaware State has only one road win. Neither team shoots well. The two teams played last year three times, and the winner won by no more than three points. Delaware State has only won once in its last eight games, covering three times. North Carolina Central hasn't covered its last three games, winning once. Delaware State to cover.
Big ACC match with NC State at 9-2 in the conference, visiting Louisville, who are 7-4 in the conference. NC State is 6-1 in road games this year. They are picking up momentum at the right time of the season, winning six games straight. Louisville has had an easy time of it during their three-game win streak, being a favorite of 9.5 or more, and they're only 2-8 against the spread in the last 10. We're buying high and selling low in a spot where Louisville should be only a 1.5-point favorite. NC State gets the job done tonight with help from its 40.2% shooting from 3-point range, which ranks 7th nationally. NC State to win.
Drake Maye led all quarterbacks, taking 62 sacks on the year, regular season and postseason combined. And now we’ve got a sack-hungry Seattle defense that is starving to get a taste of Maye. The guy who has my immediate attention is DeMarcus Lawrence. The Seahawks have played playoff teams in their last five games, and Lawrence had a sack in three of his last four starts. I'm feeling pretty good about Lawrence getting at least a half-sack with Maye as the starting quarterback.
Seattle wants to be conservative but also show some new moves with some new runners, including Rashid Shaheed. In their last game against the Rams, they tried one run, and he got 0 yards, but in his first playoff game, he had two attempts for 27 yards. Zach Charbonnet played that game, and he is out with an injury. They can only run Kenneth Walker so much before running out of options, and using the dynamite explosiveness of Shaheed could be the secret weapon. That’s what makes him so valuable. Use him. Get him involved in the gameplan. He's a game changer. He had 9 carries for 69 yards in the regular season and 3 for 27 yards in the two postseason games.
I'm waiting on a Super Bowl prediction, but I think I know where I'm going, and I think I know where Kenneth Walker is going. Without Zach Charbonnet, now, Walker is going to carry the ball at least 20 times in this game, get over 125 yards rushing and receiving combined, and at least one TD scored, which sets me up for quite a few props. The Seahawks have won 9 straight games, and in the last three, Walker has gotten over 111 yards in all three. Walker has been on it in four of his last five games, and the last five games were all playoff teams. Walker over 98.5 rushing and receiving yards.
The Seahawks and Patriots were the top teams in each conference, with each only losing three games, and each covering 14 games on the season. The Patriots went 9-0 in away games, and the Seahawks went 8-1 in road games. Seattle won nine games in a row, with the last five games being against playoff teams and covering the last four. Drake Maye has looked shaky over the last few weeks, as has his offensive line. The Seahawks were No. 1 in the NFL against the rush number, 6th in total yards allowed (293.4), and No. 1 in total points (17.1) allowed. The real betting hasn't begun. I think this line moves through 5 and 5.5 quickly and closes 6.
The Seahawks defense doesn't get talked about as much as the offense, but this defense was No. 1 in the NFL with 3.8 yards per rush allowed and No. 1 in points allowed at 17.1. We’ve got two QBs who are first-time Super Bowl starters and two defensive coaches who are first-time Super Bowl leaders. This is one Super Bowl that I don't think either offense has the success that we usually think of, particularly Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense. The Seahawks' defense keeps this game under. I think a score like 27-16 sounds appropriate.