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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past four NBA seasons, Matt has returned a whopping $6,634 to $100 bettors. That includes finishing 217-130-1 (plus $2,182) in the 2024-25 NBA season. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons, and is coming off an outstanding NHL season in which he went 235-155-21 (plus $2,022). In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
Last 88 MLB ML
+1303.5
RECORD: 62-26-0
# 1 MLB EXPERT
+1303.5
62-26 in Last 88 MLB ML Picks

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Matt's Past Picks
May 24 2026, 6:20 pm UTC
League
Astros
8
@ Cubs
5
+1303.5
62-26 Last 88 MLB ML
Analysis:

In the grind of the MLB season, I try to look for "divots," which sums up my golf game and not in a good way when the divot flies further than the ball, but I digress. By that I mean a unique spot/hole where a team has a bit more motivation. And the Cubs are in an utter free-fall, but they better win Sunday or it could get really ugly heading out on a trip. And it is their best pitcher (for now) in Shota Imanaga, although he was blasted last time out. Lot better in day games (2.76 ERA). Astros starter Peter Lambert has lost two straight. Houston star Yordan Alvarez already has been ruled out after leaving Saturday's game. Big loss.

Pick Made: May 23, 10:37 pm UTC on bet365
May 24 2026, 5:40 pm UTC
League
Mets
0
@ Marlins
4
+1303.5
62-26 Last 88 MLB ML
Analysis:

That New York lineup today looks quite lame to conclude a road trip with Juan Soto out due to the flu (plus all the guys on IL already) and that's apparently spreading around the locker room as well. Rookie pitcher Christian Scott has been meh with a 4.13 ERA. Miami's Tyler Phillips will serve as a longer opener and has been a pretty good reliever with a 1.20 ERA in 15 appearances overall.

Pick Made: Sun 4:19 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 24 2026, 3:00 pm UTC
League
Wolverhampton
1
@ Burnley
1
+705
14-4-4 Last 22 EPL
+322
4-1-3 Last 8 EPL ML
Analysis:

We are 19th! That's all that is at stake in this one Sunday with both clubs set for relegation regardless. Wolverhampton has not won a single road match all season with seven total goals scored -- and hasn't scored in its past three away -- is really all this is. Burnley has all of two wins at home. A scoreless draw probably would be fitting.

Pick Made: May 22, 2:31 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 24 2026, 3:00 pm UTC
League
Arsenal
2
@ Crystal Palace
1
+705
14-4-4 Last 22 EPL
+333
9-3-1 Last 13 EPL ATS
Analysis:

This became a meaningless game for Arsenal on Tuesday when Man City was held to a draw against Bournemouth, handing the Gunners the Premier League title for the first time in a couple of decades. So why risk injury to key guys Sunday on the road in the season finale six days ahead of the Champions League final? Which is something that Arsenal has never won. I sure wouldn't play anyone much if at all. But, hey, a one-goal win works. Crystal Palace is unbeaten in its past nine in all competitions at Selhurst Park.

Pick Made: May 19, 9:58 pm UTC on Caesars
May 24 2026, 2:10 am UTC
League
Rockies
4
@ Diamondbacks
5
+1303.5
62-26 Last 88 MLB ML
+383.5
39-20 Last 59 MLB ML
Analysis:

Colorado pulled the upset in the desert on Friday night, which for Saturday's purposes makes me like this more. If the Rockies' Michael Lorenzen (2-6, 7.03 ERA) isn't the worst starting pitcher in the majors, I'm not sure who is. The Snakes obliterated him last Sunday in Denver. Arizona's Zac Gallen a couple of years ago was in the conversation as one of the best right-handers in the majors. He's not that guy lately at 2-4 with a 4.78 ERA, but he's still the Blair to Lorenzen's Natalie if we are talking "The Facts of Life" metaphors.

Pick Made: May 23, 4:34 am UTC on FanDuel
May 24 2026, 1:40 am UTC
League
Athletics
0
@ Padres
2
+836
52-25-1 Last 78 MLB
+252.5
7-2 Last 9 MLB ATS
+547
18-10 Last 28 MLB ATS
Analysis:

I posted a Padres-related play in Discord, and I'm still not quite sure why they are home dogs but will take it. Lucas Giolito looked pretty decent in his season debut last time out, running out of gas in the sixth inning. He shouldn't have gone out for the sixth, that was a managerial mistake. Athletics pitcher JT Ginn has been quite good, but he sure wasn't his first two seasons so color me skeptical. Friars star Fernando Tatis Jr. has as many home runs this season as I do, and I've had 183 fewer at-bats and use my belly as a coaster at this point. So, yeah, I could do that. Is this the night he snaps the slump? Tatis hasn't faced Ginn.

Pick Made: May 23, 9:58 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 24 2026, 12:00 am UTC
League
Knicks
121
@ Cavaliers
108
+27.5
23-19-2 Last 44 NBA
+1030
35-16 Last 51 NBA ML
Analysis:

Have the Knicks looked sensational lately? For sure. Are they getting overhyped because of us and ESPN, etc., because it's a New York team? 100% I don't need to see Mariska Hargitay this much if not watching SVU. But I can't ever crack on Ben Stiller because, obviously, Severance. This is clearly the season for the Cavs. They might be broken after that Game 1 collapse but I really don't think they get swept. What did they expect banking on James Harden? But they have been pretty dominant at home in these playoffs. Trying to think of the Cleveland famous fan version of Mariska. Drew Carey? Mr. Taylor Swift?

Pick Made: May 23, 2:43 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 23 2026, 11:00 pm UTC
League
Canadiens
2
@ Hurricanes
3
+685.5
12-4 Last 16 NHL O/U
Analysis:

The Hurricanes were clearly rusty in Game 1 as Frederik Andersen had been historically good in these playoffs before getting shelled in the opener. I expect good Fred tonight in Game 2. He hadn't allowed more than two goals in any other postseason game. And if that happens again, this certainly should cash. It's our only 6.5 on the board.

Pick Made: May 23, 4:25 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 23 2026, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Elche
1
@ Girona
1
+213
5-2 Last 7 LIGA ATS
Analysis:

There are a few things wrong with American sports and one is that kids get a ribbon for just showing up. Yeah, this ain't the SATs where you get points for signing your name (I still managed Under; and continually have nightmares about filling in those little multiple choice dots in a race against time and wish I was kidding). Long story short: This loser Saturday is relegated. A draw and it's Girona kicked. Elche is the worst road team in La Liga with a single away win in 18 matches. I would murder Draw No Bet but it's north of -300.

Pick Made: May 23, 3:50 am UTC on Caesars
May 23 2026, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Osasuna
0
@ Getafe
1
Analysis:

My Spanish is a little rusty -- me llamo Mateo; mucho con carne por favor -- but from what I can tell, Getafe will qualify for European soccer (not the Champions League) with a win. The side hasn't played in Europe since the 2019-20 campaign. Osasuna is playing to avoid relegation but seems relatively safe barring a blowout loss. Draw No Bet was invented for spots like this. Getafe won the reverse fixture 3-2.

Pick Made: May 23, 3:23 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 23 2026, 12:00 am UTC
League
Golden Knights
3
@ Avalanche
1
Analysis:

How much is Avalanche star defenseman Cale Makar worth to the books? About 20 cents apparently as this number has dropped that much with him ruled out again. But Vegas is again without captain Mark Stone. And the Avalanche simply cannot go down 2-0 heading to Sin City. Since relocating to Denver, the Avalanche are 24-6 in Game 2s at home.

Pick Made: May 22, 5:55 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 22 2026, 11:07 pm UTC
League
Pirates
2
@ Blue Jays
6
+1303.5
62-26 Last 88 MLB ML
Analysis:

The Jays are generally a different team in their home park, although they enter off back-to-back upset wins at Yankee Stadium. Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.45 ERA) has been quite good for the most part. Bucs pitcher Bubba Chandler is a touted prospect but maybe not ready for the Show yet at 1-5 with a 5.14 ERA. Major control issues so far. Chandler has been one of the biggest money-losing pitchers in the majors at minus-$537.

Pick Made: May 22, 8:51 am UTC on BetRivers
May 22 2026, 6:20 pm UTC
League
Astros
4
@ Cubs
2
+1303.5
62-26 Last 88 MLB ML
Analysis:

Not my favorite Cubs play ever, but I feel almost obligated to play these Friday standalone matinees at Wrigley. Not a big fan of Chicago pitcher Jameson Taillon, but he has been better at home and during the day. Certainly prefer the Cubs' lineup. Maybe some urgency on a season-high five-game skid to fall out of first in the NL Central (stupid Brewers). Houston is 8-17 away. Spencer Arrighetti (5-1, 1.50 ERA) has been shockingly good, but he's not that guy. His road splits are significantly worse than at home; Arrighetti is 6-13 career away with a 5.15 ERA.

Pick Made: May 22, 4:25 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 22 2026, 1:40 am UTC
League
Rockies
1
@ Diamondbacks
2
+251.5
9-3-1 Last 13 MLB Game Props
Analysis:

Here come the Diamondbacks as they are taking advantage of a soft spot in their schedule. Eduardo Rodriguez has been dominant at home with a 1.65 ERA in four starts. Ketel Marte is red hot atop that Snakes lineup and won Tuesday's game about by himself. The Rockies are using a potpourri of middling dudes you probably never heard of in a bullpen-type day on the mound.

Pick Made: May 21, 1:56 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 21 2026, 5:15 pm UTC
League
Pirates
6
@ Cardinals
2
+836
52-25-1 Last 78 MLB
+252.5
7-2 Last 9 MLB ATS
Analysis:

The Cardinals burned me yesterday but today simply asking for a one-run loss. Today's starter Dustin May (3-4, 4.81) doesn't have great numbers on the surface but has had four straight quality starts. The righty simply got wrecked his first two of the year and been trying to dig out of that hole. May threw six strong in a no-decision in Pittsburgh on April 27. Counterpart Braxton Ashcraft was raked by the Cardinals on April 28 for six runs in 4.1 innings. The Bucs have failed on their past three tries to win back-to-back games. Again, go ahead. Just make it close. The teams have played a combined 25 one-run games.

Pick Made: May 21, 12:16 pm UTC on bet365
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