Matt's Picks (7 Live)
Giants ace Logan Webb looked great in the WBC and for the most part this spring, and he keeps the ball in the park so the Yanks' Aaron Judge likely doesn't jack one while Webb is in there Wednesday in the season opener from the Left Coast (Netflix has baseball now?). We love home teams in season openers. Max Fried is excellent as well for the Yanks, so we may be looking at scoreless through five. Probably play a half unit on NRFI. With pitchers usually ahead of hitters this early, why wouldn't we take +1.5 when it figures to be low scoring in a pitchers' park?
Second of a back-to-back on Wednesday for Boston, which will mean a major downgrade in net (barring something very unusual) to Joonas Korpisalo, who has a single win in his past six with a 3.93 GAA and .876 SV. Buffalo returns to NY from a four-game trip with one of the best home marks in the league at 22-9-3 and off since Sunday. The Sabres have won 32 games when scoring first this season, second most in the league. They lost two early-season meetings with Boston but won the most recent home matchup easily.
End of a six-game trip for the Lakers on Wednesday, so they figure to be on fumes. They looked a bit tired in a close win last Saturday in Orlando and then very much so in Monday's loss in Detroit. Maybe LeBron James gets this one off after playing 39 minutes in Motown. Luka Doncic has played at least 38 minutes every game this trip. Hey, give him the night off, too. Marcus Smart is doubtful and Rui Hachimura iffy. Looks like the Pacers might try for one game with pretty much everyone who isn't done for the year expected to play in obviously one of the marquee home games of the season. Indiana has covered three straight.
The Oilers can't start Connor Ingram in net every single game, so they are going with Tristan Jarry tonight and he's the fade reason. The former Penguin gave up seven in his last start on March 12 and has a brutal 4.17 GAA overall since joining the Oilers in trade from Pittsburgh. The Edmonton offense clearly misses Leon Draisaitl having dropped two straight and totaling two goals. The Mammoth haven't won in four tries in this series since moving to Utah, so they are due. Edmonton is 2-for-16 on the power play over the past five, while Utah's PK 15-for-17 over the last five.
We probably get backup David Rittich on Tuesday for the Isles, but that should be fine as he's 11-3-1 with a 2.48 GAA on home ice. Better numbers than No. 1 Ilya Sorokin. We are at the point of the season where certain teams just have to get two points and this is such a game for the East playoff-hopeful Islanders. Matthew Schaefer is one goal shy of tying the single-season NHL rookie record for a blueliner. Chicago is playing out the string. The Hawks haven't scored more than three goals in 10 straight.
I will say that recent trends indicate we might bet backup Joonas Korpisalo in net for Boston on Tuesday, but I'm not sure it matters as the Leafs are in full Pacers/Wizards/Jazz tank mode. What a shockingly bad season. Lot of changes up yonder coming. The B's have to get the two points as they chase a playoff spot and should still win even with Korpisalo. Maybe they hold off one more game and go with Jeremy Swayman, who has been dominant on home ice. The B's do play again Wednesday and since Swayman's road splits aren't great, I'd sure start him Tuesday and Korpy on Wednesday in Buffalo when the B's probably lose anyways.
Somewhat calm before the storm pre-stretch run in the NHL with just the one game Monday. Simply a must-get two points for the Senators, who are just outside the current East playoff field. They are on a 13-5 run. The Blueshirts are in full quit mode, losing a fourth straight Sunday in a shootout to Winnipeg. Inexplicably, New York is now 9-17-7 at Madison Square Garden, which used to rival whatever the Avalanche's building is called these days as the toughest place for opponents to play in the league. Igor Shesterkin has been average this month with a 3.15 GAA.
Huge number for Wemby, who averages 22.7 points on the road this season and is about at that number via our model tonight in Miami. The Heat have two good bigs to help slow Wembanyama in Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware. In three of his past four, Wemby hasn't come close to at least 28 points. Also, Stephon Castle is back from a two-game injury absence and Castle certainly may siphon off a few shot attempts. Wembanyama scored 27 in 40 minutes in the first meeting. If he plays around 40 again, yeah, this probably loses.